UF professor to expand proven disease-prediction dashboard to monitor Gulf threats

After deploying life-saving cholera-prediction systems in Africa and Asia, a University of Florida researcher is turning his attention to the pathogen-plagued waters off Florida’s Gulf Coast. 

In the fight to end cholera deaths by 2030 – a goal set by the World Health Organization – UF researcher and professor Antar Jutla, Ph.D., has deployed his Cholera Risk Dashboard in about 20 countries, most recently in Kenya. Using NASA and NOAA satellite images and artificial intelligence algorithms, the dashboard is an interactive web interface that pinpoints areas ripe for thriving cholera bacteria.  

It can predict cholera risk four weeks out, allowing early and proactive humanitarian efforts, medical preparation and health warnings. Cholera is a bacterial disease spread through contaminated food and water; it causes severe intestinal issues and can be fatal if untreated. The US Centers for Disease Control reports between 21,000 and 143,000 cholera deaths each year globally.  

Make no mistake, the Cholera Risk Dashboard saves lives, existing users contend. 

His team now wants to set up a similar pathogen-monitoring and disease-prediction system for pathogenic bacteria in the warm, pathogen-fertile waters of the Gulf of America. 

Closer to home 

Jutla is seeking funding to develop a pathogen-prediction model to identify dangerous bacteria in the Gulf to warn people – particularly rescue workers – to use protective gear or avoid contaminated areas. He envisions post-hurricane systems for the Gulf that will help the U.S. Navy/Coast Guard and other rescue workers make informed health decisions before entering the water. 

And he wants UF to be at the forefront of this technology. 

“If we have enough resources, I think within a year we should have a prototype ready for the Gulf,” said Jutla, an associate professor with UF’s Engineering School Sustainable Infrastructure and Environment. “We want to build that expertise here at UF for the entire Gulf of America.” 

Jutla and his co-investigators have applied for a five-year, $4 million NOAA RESTORE grant to study pathogens known as vibrios off Florida’s West Coast and develop the Vibrio Warning System. 

These vibrios in the Gulf can cause diarrhea, stomach cramps, nausea, vomiting, fever and chills. One alarming example is Vibrio vulnificus, commonly known as flesh-eating bacteria, a bacterium that often leads to amputations or death.  

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has reported increases in vibrio infections in the Gulf region, particularly from 2000 to 2018. The warm and ecologically sensitive Gulf waters provide a thriving habitat for harmful pathogens.  

“The grant builds directly on the success of our cholera-prediction system," Jutla noted. "By integrating AI technologies into public health decision-making, we would not only lead the nation but also become self-reliant in understanding the movement of environmentally sensitive pathogens, positioning ourselves as global leaders.” 

Learning from preparing early 

Jutla’s dashboards are critical tools for global health and humanitarian officials, said Linet Kwamboka Nyang’au, a senior program manager for Data4Now, a United Nations initiative.  

“Its timeliness, its predictiveness and its ease of access to the right data is a game changer in responding to outbreaks and preventing potentially catastrophic occurrences,” Kwamboka Nyang’au said.  

Over the last few years, Jutla and several health/government leaders have been working to deploy the cholera-predictive dashboard. 

“Our partnership with UF, the government of Kenya and others on the cholera dashboard is a life-saving mission for high-risk, extremely vulnerable populations in Africa. By predicting potential cholera outbreaks and coordinating multi-stakeholder interventions, we are enabling swift action and empowering local governments and communities to prevent crises before they unfold,” said Davis Adieno, senior director of programs for the Global Partnership for Sustainable Development Data, a UN Foundation affiliate. 

The early warnings for waterborne pathogens also allows the United Nations time to issue early assistance to residents in the outbreak’s path, said Juan Chaves-Gonzalez, a program advisor with the United Nations’ Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. 

“There are several things we do with the money ahead of time. We provide hygiene kits. We repair and protect water sources. We start chlorination, we set up hand-washing stations, train and deploy rapid-response teams. At the community level, we try to inject funding to procure rapid-diagnostic tests,” he said.  

“We identify those very, very specific barriers and put money in organizations’ hands in advance to remove those barriers.” 

Eyes on the Gulf 

In the United States, hurricanes stir up vibrios in the Gulf, posing a high risk of infection for humans in the water. There has been a nearly 200% increase in these cases over the last 20 years in the U.S., according to the CDC.     

“After Hurricane Ian, we saw a very heavy presence of these vibrios in Sarasota Bay and the Charlotte Bay region. Not only that, but they were showing signs of antibiotic-resistance. Last year, we had one of the largest number of cases of vibriosis in the history of Florida,” Jutla said.   

Samples from 2024 hurricanes Helene and Milton are being analyzed with AI and complex bioinformatics algorithms.  

“If there is a risky operation by rescue personnel, not using personal protective equipment, then we would want them to know there is a significant concentration of these bacteria in the water,” Jutla said. “As an example, Navy divers operating in contaminated waters are at risk of infections from vibrios and other enteric pathogens, which can cause severe gastrointestinal and wound infections.”  

Safety and economics 

“Exposure to vibrios and other enteric pathogens,” Jutla added, “can disrupt economic activities, particularly in coastal regions that are dependent on tourism and fishing. And vibrios may be considered potential bioterrorism agents due to their ability to cause widespread illness and panic.”  

In developing the Vibrio Warning System, Jutla noted, he and his team want to significantly enhance public health safety and preparedness along the Gulf Coast. By leveraging advanced AI technologies, satellite datasets and predictive modeling, they plan to mitigate the risks posed by environmentally sensitive pathogenic bacteria, ensuring timely interventions and safeguarding human health and economic activities.  

“Hospital systems and healthcare providers in the Gulf region will have a tool for anticipatory decision making on where and when to anticipate illness from these environmentally sensitive vibrios, and issue a potential warning to the general public,” he said. “With the potential to become a leader in environmental pathogen prediction, UF stands at the forefront of this critical research, poised to make a lasting impact on local, regional, national and global health and safety.”