Maps will show how climate change may reshape world population by 2100

Experts are developing maps which can be used to predict the impact of climate change on the distribution of earth’s population by the end of the century.

Research group WorldPop, based at the University of Southampton, claim the data will highlight the locations likely to be most severely affected in the future.

The demographers, working with the University of Bristol and Wellcome Trust, say the maps will provide detailed pictures of humanity by 2100, including predicted population sizes, ages and genders.

WorldPop already produces data which is used by the UN and international governments to estimate the impact of climate change on earth today.

Climate change will have a fundamental impact on our environment, health and society but it will not be felt equally across the globe, said WorldPop director Andy Tatem, Professor of Spatial Demography and Epidemiology at Southampton.

He added: “Our population data will be vital to understand and plan for the impact of future extreme weather and natural disasters, which have the potential to reshape settlements on earth.”

Plans to develop the maps have been backed by the Wellcome Trust, which is providing £5.6million of funding across the next seven years.

It continues WorldPop’s recent work to publish data which has been used by governments and charities to help remote communities and deploy emergency aid.

Its demographers have published around 45,000 datasets in the last decade using mobile phone data, satellite images, and census records.

These have been used to improve vaccination rates among children in Afghanistan and helped the UK government predict the spread of Covid-19 in the pandemic.

Technology lead at Wellcome Felipe J Colón-González said: “Every year we are seeing different ways in which climate change is impacting global health, including the spread of climate-sensitive infectious diseases like dengue and the health risks caused by exposure to extreme heat.

“We need to improve our understanding of what current and future warming levels hold, to be able to prepare and adapt to these challenges. WorldPop’s work aims to do exactly that.

“We’re excited to be supporting the team to continue developing this valuable digital resource, which will help all governments and international organisations make evidence-based decisions and allocate resources to best mitigate the health impacts of climate change as they prepare for the future.”

The high-resolution maps developed by WorldPop will be able to estimate population sizes across the world down to 100m-by-100m grid cells for future scenarios.

The project, which the team are calling FuturePop, will include experts who study climate and health to make sure the data is accessible to the scientific community.

Co-lead Dr Laurence Hawker, a Research Fellow from the University of Bristol, said: “Many places where populations are changing the most are at the forefront of the climate crisis.

“This makes understanding these populations even more crucial so we can ensure future planning is targeted effectively to mitigate climate-related threats.

“WorldPop has a real role to play in understanding how humanity can mitigate the changes we will face across the next 75 years.”

Read more about WorldPop at www.worldpop.org.