Comparison of a new noninvasive Jos CVD risk app and ASCVD estimator plus app for prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk in Sub-Saharan African adult populations

Background and objectives

Various risk engines exist for predicting future cardiovascular disease. We developed a noninvasive cardiovascular disease risk app which appeared to work well for us without need for invasive tests. This is an attempt to compare its predictive accuracy with an already existing widely used risk engine.

Methods

We used data partly generated in our earlier study on resistant hypertension. Between May and October 2021, those who were still attending care had abdominal height, blood pressure, weight, and height measured. Body surface index was derived from height and weight. Information on sex, family history of cardiovascular disease, alcohol use, physical inactivity, smoking, and diabetes history, total, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was extracted from the records. Data as appropriate were imputed into our new app and the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator app of the American Heart Association. The results were compared.

Results

Fifty-two patients with complete data were studied. Both methods strongly correlated positively (R = 0.805, p = 0.000), showing equivalence. Risk levels determined by both methods agreed on high cardiovascular disease risk in 21(40.30%) and intermediate risk in 22 (42.31%) patients. Four patients were classified as high risk and as medium risk by the established American Heart Association app. Five were at intermediate risk with our app and at low risk with the American Heart Association app.

Conclusions

We conclude that the Jos CVD risk app had a high degree of accuracy in predicting the risk level of cardiovascular diseases in sub-Saharan Africa. It had a slight superiority over the American College of Cardiology ASCVD estimator plus app, especially considering that no blood results requiring phlebotomy were utilized. As the American College of Cardiology ASCVD estimator plus is not designed with Black African populations in sub-Saharan countries in mind, we believe that the Jos CVD risk app in smartphones can be easily and conveniently adopted to carry out primary screening for cardiovascular diseases in both urban and rural areas at no cost to the general populace.

Full text:

https://www.xiahepublishing.com/2472-0712/ERHM-2023-00041

The study was recently published in the Exploratory Research and Hypothesis in Medicine.

Exploratory Research and Hypothesis in Medicine (ERHM) publishes original exploratory research articles and state-of-the-art reviews that focus on novel findings and the most recent scientific advances that support new hypotheses in medicine. The journal accepts a wide range of topics, including innovative diagnostic and therapeutic modalities as well as insightful theories related to the practice of medicine. The exploratory research published in ERHM does not necessarily need to be comprehensive and conclusive, but the study design must be solid, the methodologies must be reliable, the results must be true, and the hypothesis must be rational and justifiable with evidence.

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