Pandemic-related shifts in alcohol sales explored across 16 US states

An analysis of data from 16 U.S. states suggests that the first few months of the COVID-19 pandemic saw a major increase in wine and spirit sales, accompanied by notable changes in the relationship between alcohol sales and people’s visits to businesses that sell alcohol. Yingjie Hu, Brian M. Quigley, and Dane Taylor at University at Buffalo, The State University of New York, present these findings in the open-access journal PLOS ONE on December 15.

After U.S. states implemented stay-at-home orders to reduce the spread of COVID-19 in March 2020, anecdotes suggested an increase in alcohol sales. However, data-driven investigations into whether alcohol sales and use did indeed increase have produced mixed results.

To help clarify the potential impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on the dynamics of alcohol sales, Hu and colleagues conducted an analysis of relevant data from 16 U.S. states, from before the pandemic to June 2020. Using a variety of analytical techniques, including machine-learning methods, they evaluated monthly alcohol sales data reported by the U.S. National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, as well as anonymized mobility data from over 45 million smartphones indicating people’s visits to businesses where alcohol is sold.

The analysis found that overall, sales of spirits and wine increased in March to June 2020—by as much as 20 to 40 percent in some states – while beer sales declined overall. Meanwhile, people’s visits to bars and pubs declined, but visits to liquor stores increased.

The dynamics of alcohol sales varied significantly across the 16 states studied. For example, while beer sales decreased in most states between March and June 2020, they increased in Kansas, Arkansas and Texas. Meanwhile, Texas, Kentucky and Virginia showed sustained increases in their sales of both spirits and wine between March and June 2020, which the authors suggest “can be alarming signals for problematic alcohol use”.

Machine-learning assessments point to a significant shift in the relationship between alcohol sales data and visits to various alcohol outlets. More research will be necessary to understand how people’s behaviors changed, but these findings suggest the possibility that some states saw an increase in online alcohol purchases as well as panic buying of spirits and wine.

These results provide new insights into the potential effects of lockdown policies on alcohol use and could inform future public health policies to address alcohol-related social issues.

The authors add: “This study leverages alcohol sales data and human mobility data to examine changes to alcohol sales and alcohol outlet visits during the shutdown period of the COVID-19 pandemic and their geographic differences in a subset of U.S. states. We find major increases in the sales of spirits and wine since March 2020 but the sales of beer decreased, and we also find moderate increases in people’s visits to liquor stores while their visits to bars and pubs decreased substantially.”