image: The economic impact of global warming during the 1961-2010 and 1991-2010 periods. The value for each country is the estimated impact of global warming on country-level per capita GDP. Differences in the presence/absence of countries between the 1961-2010 and 1991-2010 periods reflect differences in the availability of country-level economic data. Differences in the magnitude of country-level values between the 1961-2010 and 1991-2010 periods reflect the influence of accumulation time on the net accumulated economic impact. view more
Credit: Image courtesy of Noah S. Diffenbaugh and Marshall Burke.
A study identifies links between anthropogenic global warming and global economic inequality. The effects of historical temperature trends on economic inequality are unclear. Noah S. Diffenbaugh and Marshall Burke calculated what the per capita gross domestic product of countries would have been over the past half-century if human-caused global warming had not occurred. The calculations combine empirical estimates of the relationship between temperature fluctuations and economic growth, with simulations from 21 models of countries' estimated historical temperature fluctuations without anthropogenic climate forcing. The authors estimated that long-term global warming has decreased growth in the world's poorest countries that have emitted the least carbon dioxide, and has likely increased economic growth in many wealthy, high-emitting countries. Accounting for the economic impacts in each country, the authors estimate that it is more than 90% likely that global warming has increased the economic disparity between the top and bottom population deciles, thereby generating greater economic inequality than would have occurred without global warming. The findings suggest that the fossil fuel energy consumption of wealthy countries has likely adversely affected the economies of poor countries, suggesting that replacing fossil fuels with low-carbon energy sources may help reduce global socioeconomic disparities, according to the authors.
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Article #18-16020: "Global warming has increased global economic inequality," by Noah S. Diffenbaugh and Marshall Burke.
MEDIA CONTACT: Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Stanford University, CA; tel: 650-223-9425; email: <diffenbaugh@stanford.edu>. Marshall Burke, Stanford University, CA; tel: 650-721-2203; email: <mburke@stanford.edu>
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences