image: Expansion of extremely hot regions in a worst-case climate scenario. In the current climate, mean annual temperatures >29°C are restricted to the small dark areas in the Sahara region. In 2070, such conditions are projected to occur throughout the shaded area in a worst-case scenario where countries continue to burn oil, gas and coal unabated. Background colors represent the current mean annual temperatures. view more
Credit: Image credit: Chi Xu.
Researchers examine the history of the human climate niche. As Earth's climate continues to warm, some regions may become unsuitable for human life while conditions in other regions improve. Marten Scheffer and colleagues examined data from several sources that included global temperature, human population, and land-use estimates dating from the mid-Holocene, 6,000 years ago, to 2015 CE. The authors also estimated future human populations and global climate conditions by 2070 CE to determine where optimal climate conditions may occur. Humans, crops, and livestock are currently concentrated in a narrow subset of suitable climate space, which exhibits a mean annual temperature of approximately 11-15°C. The authors report that such conditions suitable for human life have remained largely the same since the mid-Holocene. The authors predicted that by 2070, approximately 1-3 billion people are likely to live under climate conditions that are warmer than conditions deemed suitable for human life to flourish. The findings suggest the need to enhance human development in areas where adaption to climate change is low. Furthermore, future migration from regions undergoing degradation from climate change to regions with ideal climates may be necessary, according to the authors.
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Article #19-10114: "Future of the human climate niche," by Chi Xu, Timothy A. Kohler, Timothy M. Lenton, Jens-Christian Svenning, and Marten Scheffer.
MEDIA CONTACT: Marten Scheffer, Wageningen University and Research Centre, NETHERLANDS; tel: +31-641804880; email: marten.scheffer@wur.nl
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences