image: These are statistics on death and survival on Game of Thrones. view more
Credit: Dr. Reidar Lystad, 2018
Characters in the Game of Thrones TV series are more likely to die if they do not switch allegiance, and are male, according to an article published in the open access journal Injury Epidemiology. 最近发表在开放获取期刊《伤害流行病学》(Injury Epidemiology)上的一项研究指出，作为美剧《权力的游戏》中的人物，忠于一个阵营以及性别为男，会提高他们的死亡概率。
Researchers at Macquarie University, Australia, evaluated the deaths of all important Game of Thrones characters across seven seasons of the show and found that characters were more likely to survive if they switched allegiances, such as Tyrion Lannister who switches allegiances between the houses Lannister and Targaryen. The risk of death was also greater for characters that were ‘lowborn’ (not a Lord or Lady), compared to those that were ‘highborn’. 来自澳大利亚麦考瑞大学的研究者对美剧《权力的游戏》全7季中所有重要人物的死亡进行了调研，发现如果人物改变阵营更容易活下来，比如提利昂·兰尼斯特，他从兰尼斯特家族叛变到了坦格利安家族。出身低微的人与出身高贵的人相比，死亡风险也更高。
Dr Reidar Lystad, injury epidemiologist at the Australian Institute of Health Innovation and corresponding author of the study, said: “The risk of death is high among characters in Game of Thrones. By the end of the seventh season, more than half of the characters had died – 186 out of the 330 characters we included in this study – with violent deaths being the most common by far.” 澳大利亚健康创新研究所的伤害流行病学家、研究的通讯作者Reidar Lystad博士说：“《权力的游戏》中的人物死亡风险很高。到第7季结束时，超过一半的角色——330个人物中的186个——都已经死亡，目前最常见的死因是暴力致死。”
Dr Lystad added: “While these findings may not be surprising for regular viewers, we have identified several factors that may be associated with better or worse survival, which may help us to speculate about who will prevail in the final season.” Lystad博士补充说：“这些发现对于追看这部剧的观众而言可能并不是什么新闻，但我们通过研究发现了几个与生死存亡相关的因素，可能可以帮助我们推断最终季中最后的幸存者是谁。”
The authors found that the majority of deaths occurred in Westeros (80.1%), and the most common place of death was in the home. The most common causes of death were injuries (73.7%), and particularly wounds of the head and neck, including 13 decapitations. Only two deaths from natural causes occurred across the seven seasons of the show: Maester Aemon and Old Nan, who both died of old age. The remainder of deaths were from burns (11.8%) or poisonings (4.8%). The most common circumstances of deaths were assault (63.0%), operations of war (24.4%), and legal executions (5.4%). 作者们发现，大部分死亡事件都发生在维斯特洛（80.1%），最常见的死亡地点是家里。最常见的死因是受伤（73.7%）和对头颈部造成的伤害，其中包括13次砍头。整个7季中只有2起自然死亡：伊蒙学士和老奶妈，皆因衰老而死。其他死因还包括烧死（11.8%）或中毒（4.8%）。最常见的死亡场景为袭击（63.0%）、战争（24.4%）和死刑（5.4%）。
The probability of dying within the first hour after first appearing on screen was around 14%. The survival time of characters ranged from 11 seconds to 57 hours and 15 minutes. The median survival time was estimated to be 28 hours and 48 minutes. 出场后一小时内就死亡的概率为14%左右。角色的生存时间从11秒到57小时15分不等。存活时间的中位数为28小时48分钟。
The researchers collected data on mortality and survival of 330 characters from all 67 episodes from seasons one to seven of Game of Thrones. They recorded data on the sociodemographic status of the characters, including their sex, social status, type of occupation, religious affiliation, and allegiance, alongside their survival time, and the circumstances of their death. This information was used to quantify predictors of death. The researchers crosschecked all of their data with Internet Movie Database (IMDb) and Game of Thrones Wiki. 研究人员对《权力的游戏》第一季到第七季共67集中的330个角色的生死进行了数据收集。他们记录了角色们的社会人口数据，包括性别、社会状态、职业种类、信仰和所属阵营，以及他们的生存时间和死亡场景。这些信息被用来量化死亡的预测指标。研究人员还将他们的数据与互联网电影数据库（IMDb）和“权力的游戏维基”（Game of Thrones Wiki）数据库进行了交叉对比。
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A blog on this study will be available here when the embargo lifts:
限制令解除后，关于此研究的一个博客文章也将上线： http://blogs.biomedcentral.com/on-society/2018/12/10/mortality-and-survival-in-game-of-thrones-who-will-live-and-who-will-die/
Infographic available: 针对本研究制作的信息图形： https://bit.ly/2BR3f7c
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Notes to editor附注:
1. Research article原文:
“Death is certain, the time is not” mortality and survival in Game of Thrones
Injury Epidemiology 2018
DOI: 10.1186/s40621-018-0174-7
After the embargo lifts, the article will be available here:
限制令解除后，原文链接如下：
https://injepijournal.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40621-018-0174-7 Please name the journal in any story you write. If you are writing for the web, please link to the article. All articles are available free of charge, according to BMC's open access policy. 报道时请提及期刊名称。如果您是为网站写作稿件，请附上原文链接。由于BMC的开放获取政策，本刊所有文章都可以免费阅读。
2. Injury Epidemiology is dedicated to advancing the scientific foundation for injury prevention and control through timely publication and dissemination of peer-reviewed research. Injury Epidemiology aims to be the premier venue for communicating epidemiologic studies of unintentional and intentional injuries, including, but not limited to, morbidity and mortality from motor vehicle crashes, drug overdose/poisoning, falls, drowning, fires/burns, iatrogenic injury, suicide, homicide, assaults, and abuse. 《伤害流行病学》(Injury Epidemiology)致力于通过及时发表和传播同行评审的研究来推进伤害预防和控制的科学基础。《伤害流行病学》旨在成为交流无意和故意伤害的流行病学研究的重要场所，这些伤害研究包括但不限于机动车撞车事故的发生率和死亡率、药物过量/中毒、跌倒、溺水、火灾/烧伤、医源性伤害、自杀、他杀、袭击和虐待。
3. A pioneer of open access publishing, BMC has an evolving portfolio of high quality peer-reviewed journals including broad interest titles such as BMC Biology and BMC Medicine, specialist journals such as Malaria Journal and Microbiome, and the BMC series. At BMC, research is always in progress. We are committed to continual innovation to better support the needs of our communities, ensuring the integrity of the research we publish, and championing the benefits of open research. BMC is part of Springer Nature, giving us greater opportunities to help authors connect and advance discoveries across the world. BMC作为开放获取出版的先锋，不断推出一系列高质量的同行评议期刊，这包括了BMC Biology 和BMC Medicine等涵盖范围较广的期刊，以及Malaria Journal、Microbiome和BMC系列期刊等专门刊物。BMC认为，科研永不止步。因此，我们致力于不断创新，以更好地满足科学共同体的需要，确保所发表的科研成果的完整性，并推广开放研究的益处。BMC是施普林格∙自然旗下机构，这让我们更有机会帮助世界各地的作者相互沟通并促进科学发现。
Journal
Injury Epidemiology