image: An alleged narco-trafficking node where cocaine enters by water, is warehoused, and eventually passes to inland routes via the Pan-American Highway. view more
Credit: David J. Wrathall
Researchers report a model that simulates the complex dynamics between drug traffickers and US drug control efforts in Central America. United States efforts to interdict cocaine shipments from South America have been ongoing for decades but have thus far failed to slow or stop cocaine from entering the United States. Nicholas R. Magliocca and colleagues constructed an agent-based model called NarcoLogic to simulate networks of cocaine trafficking and the effects of interdiction efforts on illicit networks. Agents in the model representing drug traffickers decide where to sell and ship cocaine based on maximizing profitability and minimizing risk, and other agents representing counterdrug personnel decide where to deploy forces based on likely success. The interactions between the two sets of agents result in a complex model in which the drug trafficking agents adapt their strategies in response to interdiction events. In the simulation, active trafficking nodes emerged in new areas, expanding the geographic extent of the network and complicating interdiction efforts. According to the authors, the model, which captures the cat-and-mouse arms race observed in real-life drug interdiction campaigns, can illuminate how clandestine economies develop and can serve as a virtual laboratory to explore the effects of alternative drug policy scenarios.
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Article #18-12459: "Modeling cocaine traffickers and counterdrug interdiction forces as a complex adaptive system," by Nicholas R. Magliocca et al.
MEDIA CONTACT: Nicholas R. Magliocca, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL; tel: 205-348-4198; e-mail: nrmagliocca@ua.edu
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences