image: Comparison of prediction quality of link openings of the Common Neighbors model (top) vs. state-of-the-art Port-gravity model (bottom). view more
Credit: Image credit: Zuzanna Kosowska-Stamirowska.
A study uncovers factors that can predict the formation of maritime shipping routes. Maritime shipping represents more than 80% of the cargo shipped worldwide and plays a central role in global supply chains. Shipping vessels emit significant levels of greenhouse gases, and understanding how shipping routes evolve could illuminate the contribution of the maritime shipping industry to climate change. Zuzanna Kosowska-Stamirowska analyzed daily movements of the global shipping fleet between 1977 and 2008, covering five classes of ships: container ships, dry bulk carriers, general cargo ships, petroleum tankers, and liquefied natural gas tankers. The author modeled the development and evolution of shipping routes based on a variety of possible factors and found that the model that most accurately predicted shipping links and volumes was based on two factors: the number of common neighbor ports between two potentially linking ports and the sea distance between them. A high number of neighbor ports could indicate that shipping between two unlinked ports must pass through neighbor ports, increasing the likelihood of forming a direct link. With increased sea distance between ports, however, the likelihood of forming a direct link decreases. According to the author, the results provide a method to model future evolution of and response to disruptions in the global maritime shipping network.
Article #19-06670: "Network effects govern the evolution of maritime trade," by Zuzanna Kosowska-Stamirowska.
MEDIA CONTACT: Zuzanna Kosowska-Stamirowska, NavAlgo, Paris, FRANCE; e-mail: zuzanna@navalgo.com
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Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences