Mountain snowpack and climate warming

A study explores possible responses of mountain snowpack to climate warming. Around 70% of total runoff from mountains is estimated to originate as snow. Temperatures are expected to continue to rise in mountainous regions, raising concern about the amount of water that may be stored in the future snowpack. To estimate the vulnerability of the snowpack to future climate warming, Laurie Huning and Amir AghaKouchak analyzed historical snowpack and air temperature data for the Sierra Nevada Mountains spanning the years 1985-2016. The authors estimated the probability of the amount of snow water equivalent (SWE) on April 1 exceeding its long-term average value, and of the center of mass of the SWE distribution on April 1 being below its long-term average elevation, at different temperatures in various parts of the range. For a 1 °C increase in average winter temperature, above average SWE became approximately 20% less likely. The change in probability varied regionally, from around 30% in the northwest to 14% in the southeast. For a 2 °C temperature increase, the overall probability of above-average SWE decreased by around 40%. A lower-than-average center of mass became around 60% and 90% less likely for 1 °C and 2 °C temperature increases, respectively. The results suggest that the northern regions of the Sierra Nevada are more vulnerable to warming than the southern regions, with implications for water resource management, wildfire activity, and flood control, according to the authors.

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Article #18-05953: "Mountain snowpack response to different levels of warming," by Laurie S. Huning and Amir AghaKouchak.

MEDIA CONTACT: Laurie S. Huning, University of California, Irvine, CA; tel: 310-403-9648; e-mail: lhuning@uci.edu

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