Study reveals how Tasman Sea temperatures influence Antarctic peninsula warming

The Antarctic Peninsula, one of the fastest-warming regions on Earth, has seen temperatures rise five times faster than the global average in recent decades. Extreme heat events, such as the record-breaking 20.8°C recorded at Seymour Island in February 2020, have raised urgent questions about the drivers behind these dramatic changes.

A new study led by Dr. Fei Zheng at Sun Yat-sen University sheds light on a surprising connection: winter sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Tasman Sea, located between Australia and New Zealand, play a key role in influencing Antarctic Peninsula temperatures. The findings, published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, reveal how mid-latitude ocean conditions can trigger far-reaching atmospheric waves that impact polar climates.

"Our research shows that warmer or cooler temperatures in the Tasman Sea can send a climatic 'ripple effect' across the Pacific, ultimately warming the Antarctic Peninsula," explains Dr. Zheng. "However, not all climate models capture this link accurately—higher-resolution models do a much better job."

 The study found that higher-resolution climate models more realistically simulate the atmospheric wave train (known as the Pacific-South American pattern) triggered by Tasman Sea SST changes. Lower-resolution models showed greater inconsistencies, leading to less reliable projections.

That being said, there’s also shortage with high-resolution models. While they accurately reproduced long-term warming trends, they tended to overestimate year-to-year temperature variability in the Antarctic Peninsula while underestimating variability in the Tasman Sea itself. This imbalance may cause models to exaggerate how strongly the atmosphere responds to ocean changes.

Understanding the Tasman-Antarctica connection helps scientists refine climate predictions for the vulnerable Antarctic Peninsula, where rapid ice melt contributes to global sea-level rise. The study also highlights the need for improved model accuracy, particularly in simulating ocean-atmosphere interactions.