UN University: five deep changes urgently needed for a sustainable world and how to achieve them

Amid deepening inequalities and escalating crises, including climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution, a new United Nations report presents a bold approach for change. 

The 2025 Interconnected Disaster Risks report, Turning Over a New Leaf, issued by the UN University’s Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), shifts focus from diagnosing problems to mapping out solutions. It establishes that many of today’s solutions are surface-level fixes, and that to create lasting change, we need to question the societal structures and mindsets that perpetuate these challenges.

 “Society is at a crossroads,” says Prof. Shen Xiaomeng, Director of UNU-EHS. “For years, scientists have warned us about the damage we’re doing to our planet, and how to stop it. But we aren’t taking meaningful actions. We know climate change is worsening, yet fossil fuel consumption keeps hitting record highs. We already have a waste crisis, yet household waste is projected to double by 2050. Time and again, we see the danger ahead, yet we keep moving towards it. In many cases, we see the abyss, we know how to turn around, and yet we confidently keep walking towards it. Why?” 

To answer this question, the report offers a more holistic analysis of what lies at the heart of human actions, and how true change can be achieved, and it also gives real-world examples of positive changes that have been made around the world and can serve as a model and source of inspiration.

The Theory of Deep Change

The previous edition of Interconnected Disaster Risks had warned about irreversible risk tipping points, and this year the authors picked up where the last report left off by developing a path forward: The Theory of Deep Change (ToDC).

This theory dives down to root causes of global problems, identifying structures and assumptions in society that allow them to persist. For example, when a river is so clogged with plastic waste that it creates disastrous floods, people might criticize the waste management system and call for more recycling. However, the Theory of Deep Change goes deeper: it first identifies the structures that allow waste to accumulate to begin with, such as single-use items or mass production systems, and then dives deeper into the assumptions that led to the creation of those systems, and that incentivize people to keep them going, such as believing that ‘new is better’ or that material production and consumption is a sign of progress. 

Change starts at the roots

The scientists relate their model to a tree, where the visible outcomes are the fruits, but the real issues lie at the roots: Rotten roots produce rotten fruits.

True change, the report emphasizes, starts at the roots. Without rethinking the values and mindsets underpinning these systems, the systems themselves will never change. Interventions such as recycling or conservation will remain inadequate because they are superficial fixes that do not address the root causes of waste and biodiversity loss. Society cannot recycle its way out of the plastic crisis without questioning why so much plastic waste is produced in the first place.

Caitlyn Eberle, a lead author of the report, remarks: “There are many people who are trying to change the world for the better. But trying to do the right thing can seem like an impossible challenge, and when we feel as though things aren’t moving in the right direction, it is easy to feel defeated. Our report shows that many of the actions we take, as well-intentioned as they are, won’t work as long as there is a whole system working against us. We need to go deeper, envision the world that we want to live in, and change the structures to match that vision.”

Recognizing and going beyond superficial fixes

Solar geoengineering is one example cited in the report of how not addressing the deep roots of a problem can cause even further risks. Currently, there is growing interest in research and deployment of solar geoengineering technologies, such as spraying aerosols into the Earth’s stratosphere to reflect sunlight back to space and lower average global temperatures. Hailed as a solution for climate change, this approach could have unpredictable impacts on weather patterns all across the globe. 

But additionally, seen through the lens of the Theory of Deep Change, solar geoengineering is also an attempt to leave the current system in place rather than committing to the real solution. By addressing the negative consequences of human actions (global warming), instead of the actions themselves (burning fossil fuels), it is a superficial fix. Moreover, when executed by individual governments or companies, it is also an example of a unilateral decision being made in one part of the world that could have far-reaching consequences for others.

Five deep changes

The report outlines five areas where deep systemic changes are urgently needed:

• Rethink waste: From trash to treasure
• Realign with nature: From separation to harmony
• Reconsider responsibility: From me to we
• Reimagine the future: From seconds to centuries
• Redefine value: From economic wealth to planetary health.

Levers: How to make change happen

To create truly deep change, the Theory of Deep Change recognizes two types of levers that can be used to affect change: inner and outer levers. While it is possible to start with one lever, both are needed to create lasting change.

• Inner levers: Inner levers are the ways we can change the current assumptions of our systems. They include paradigm or mindset shifts that allow people to redefine the boundaries of what is possible.
• Outer levers: Outer levers translate the new goals of a system into practical structures to produce more positive outcomes. They involve changes to policy, institutions or education, for instance.

In respect to the previously mentioned example of solar geoengineering, an inner lever would shift assumptions from prioritizing self-interest to viewing ourselves as responsible people caring about the global community. Outer levers can also be pulled to create structures for international governance and commitments to work together to solve global problems. Both of these are needed in combination to create a deep change that will last and result in a better future. 

Overcoming barriers to change

The report acknowledges major challenges to change, such as the "Delta of Doom" – even when solutions are clear and change is already underway, implementation can be stalled by conflicts of interest, fear and systemic inertia. This may aptly describe the strong headwinds against meaningful action we see today.   

The key to overcoming them lies in recognizing that positive change can and does happen every day, and that systems can change because they are human-made.

“Change can be uncomfortable, but going backwards won’t solve the challenges of a rapidly evolving world,” says Dr. Zita Sebesvari, another lead author of the report. “This report is not just about avoiding disaster – it’s about breaking free from the mindset of merely mitigating harm. We limit ourselves when we focus only on preventing the worst, rather than striving for the best. By addressing the root causes of the problems, fostering global cooperation and believing in our collective power, we can shape a world where future generations do not just survive but thrive. It’s time for fresh thinking, and ultimately, turning over a new leaf.”

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Further information on the five broad changes

1. Rethink waste: The world’s “take-make-waste” model is unsustainable, generating 2 billion tonnes of household waste annually – enough to fill a line of shipping containers wrapped around the equator 25 times. The report calls for a rethinking of the concept of “waste” and for shifting to a circular economy that prioritizes durability, repair and reuse. Kamikatsu, Japan is highlighted as a model of success, a town that has embraced circular strategies such as composting, upcycling, clothing exchanges, and waste separation, and that has achieved a recycling rate four times the average in Japan. The report warns that failure to keep resources in use can also affect their availability in the future. Lithium, which is used in batteries for rechargeable items like phones, is taken in great quantities, but rarely reused. Lithium reserves are currently estimated to be depleted by around 2050. At the same time, it is projected that over 75 per cent of lithium mined by 2050 will end up in the garbage. We are depleting lithium reserves while letting the lithium that has been used go to waste. 
2. Realign with nature: Humanity must stop seeing itself as separate from, and superior to, nature. Humans have attempted to control natural processes instead of coexisting with them, but centuries of exploitation have led to deforestation, species extinction and ecosystem collapse. Destroying nature destroys some of the most precious resources needed for human survival, such as clean air and water, food or the materials used for shelter. One example in the report is river channelization, a process that alters rivers to flow in straight lines, to improve navigability, create more agricultural land or to protect cities from flooding. In the 1960s, the Kissimmee River in Florida, USA, was channelized, drying out around 160 square kilometres of wetlands and leading to a massive decline in species. Furthermore, while channelization is often done to reduce flooding in one area, it frequently makes flooding worse for downstream communities. But the Kissimmee River is also a positive example: having recently been restored, wetland species have returned, corridors for panthers and bears to cross the state reinstated, and the wetlands are again serving as a sponge, storing billions of gallons of water to help prevent flooding during storms, especially important as hurricanes become more frequent and severe.
3. Reconsider responsibility: The world is a shared home to more than 8 billion people, but resources and opportunities are unevenly distributed. This disparity also extends to greenhouse gas emissions and how the impacts of climate change are felt. The wealthiest nations and individuals contribute disproportionately to emissions, while the poorest bear the brunt of climate-related disasters. One example highlighted in the report is carbon offsetting, where rich countries avoid ambitious climate goals by balancing out their own emissions through tree planting in another part of the world, thereby also shifting negative effects to these other countries (“carbon colonialism”). The report calls for a shift from individualism and unilateralism to collective global accountability, advocating for a multilateral vision for the future.
4. Reimagine the future: Short-term thinking – the problem of “presentism” – dominates decision-making. Because society tends to focus on the here and now, we often shift responsibility to future generations. The people alive today determine the conditions for the trillions of people yet to be born, and in many respects, we will be leaving future generations a world with more challenges rather than setting them up for success. One example highlighted in the report is nuclear waste. While some view nuclear energy as a clean and sustainable alternative to fossil fuels, it also produces radioactive waste with a lifespan of over 100,000 years. At present, humanity has found no way to properly dispose of this toxic waste, so it is most often deposited in temporary storage sites, which pose containment risks, in the hopes that future generations will solve the problem. The report urges for more long-term thinking, for example by institutionalizing future visioning in policymaking.
5. Redefine value: The world is becoming richer, with world GDP rising, but more global wealth does not equate more global prosperity and well-being. Benefits are not shared equally, and planetary health is declining. The report reveals an imbalance in values where economic value is usually put before other values. One example cited are forests, which support biodiversity, as well as human health and well-being. However, in some places, deforested land is valued up to 7.5 times more than forested land, leading to strong economic pressure on forests and to deforestation. A narrow focus on monetary value fuels inequality and environmental degradation and strains planetary boundaries. The report cites alternative models like Bhutan’s Gross National Happiness Index, which prioritizes well-being and ecological balance over economic growth.

By the Numbers

Rethink waste:

• 2 billion: Tonnes of household waste produced annually 
• 95% less: Energy required to produce recycled aluminum compared to primary production
• 7.4 million: Tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions saved annually in the UK by keeping organic waste out of landfills
• 80%: Recycling rate achieved by Kamikatsu, Japan (4x the national average)

Realign with nature:

• 1 million: Species of plants and animals at risk of extinction 
• 95%: Land altered by human activities
• 25,000: Kilometres of rivers planned for restoration to free-flowing conditions in Europe by 2030

Reconsider responsibility:

• 75%: of relative income losses due to climate change felt by the poorest half of the population, despite being responsible for just 12% of greenhouse gas emissions
• 98%: Decrease in ozone-depleting substances since the Montreal Protocol was enacted
• 8.2 billion: People who share planet Earth as a home
• 30%: Of the reserves of minerals essential to global manufacturing and technology are located in Sub-Saharan Africa, yet over 30% of the local population experiences severe poverty
• 1.3 million: Deaths from COVID-19 around the world that could have been prevented with equitable vaccine coverage

Reimagine the future:

• 6.75 trillion: Predicted number of births over the next 50,000 years
• 7 generations: The minimum impact window considered in the Haudenosaunee Confederacy’s decision-making principle
• $659 billion: Global investment in renewable energy in 2023, a record high

Redefine value:

• $100 trillion: Global GDP in 2022, up from $4.5 trillion in 1973
• 10%: Proportion of the global population that owns 76% of all wealth

Some examples of proven success stories: change is possible

In addition to the examples noted earlier, the report highlights many global and national initiatives where society has managed to make deep positive changes, including:

• USB-C law: In 2022 the EU passed a law requiring all portable electronics to use USB-C charging ports to reduce e-waste
• Kamikatsu Zero Waste Center: a hub for zero-waste activities in the town of Kamikatsu, Japan that allowed it to achieve an 80 per cent recycling rate
• UK Peatland Conservation: A nature-based solution benefiting both ecosystems and communities 
• Earth jurisprudence: In 2008, Ecuador’s constitution established enforceable rights of Pachamama, or Mother Earth. Under this framework, one court ruled that flooding caused by dumping construction debris into the Vilcabamba River violated rights of nature, ordering the removal of the debris to restore the right of the river to flow.
• Montreal Protocol: Successfully reversed ozone layer depletion through coordinated global action
• The Aboriginal Carbon Foundation: Indigenous-led framework to supply carbon credits
• Finland’s Committee for the Future advises on policies with multi-generational impacts
• Svalbard Global Seed Vault: Protecting biodiversity for future generations
• Green prescriptions: In countries like Canada, New Zealand and Japan, doctors give out “green prescriptions” to promote health by spending time in nature – recognizing the diverse values that nature provides.
• Bhutan’s Gross National Happiness Index prioritizes well-being and ecological balance over economic growth
• Smoking: Example of a big societal shift where a mindset shift and regulations have come together to drastically reduce an unhealthy behaviour

About the Interconnected Disaster Risks Report (#InterconnectedRisks)

Interconnected Disaster Risks is a science-based report designed to be accessible to the general public. First released in 2021, it has a different topical focus for each edition, with the aim to shed light on the interconnections that are at the root of today's global challenges, as well as solutions. Based on thorough scientific analysis, it includes technical background reports for each of the cases it discusses in the main report, this year for each of the five changes that are highlighted.

The main report, technical reports, executive summary, along with additional multimedia resources, are available post embargo at interconnectedrisks.org

About the United Nations University’s Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS)

The United Nations University’s Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) was established in 2003 in Bonn, Germany. The institute conducts research work focusing on advancing human security and well-being by addressing present and future risks arising from environmental hazards and climate change. Its main areas of work are risk & adaptation and transformation. In addition to its research work, UNU-EHS offers education opportunities at the master’s level and hosts a number of international PhD projects and capacity-development courses on global issues of environmental risks and sustainable development. More information: https://unu.edu/ehs

@UNUEHS

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