Study evaluates airborne transmission risk of mpox compared to COVID-19 and smallpox

SINGAPORE – A collaborative research effort between the A*STAR Infectious Diseases Labs (A*STAR IDL) and the A*STAR Institute of High Performance Computing (A*STAR IHPC) has provided new insights into the likelihood of mpox spreading by airborne respiratory particles, comparing it to SARS-CoV-2 and smallpox. The interdisciplinary study, published in The Lancet Microbe, underscores the importance of computational modelling in infectious disease research, combining virology and simulations to assess potential viral transmission risks.

Investigating the Potential for Airborne Transmission

The study addresses a critical question in public health: could mpox evolve to become efficiently airborne like its viral relative, smallpox? While close physical contact remains the dominant mode of transmission, the presence of mpox virus in respiratory fluids, such as mucus and saliva, raises concerns about possible aerosol transmission under certain conditions.

To investigate this, researchers integrated virological data with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to model the transmission of respiratory aerosols in a typical indoor setting. Their findings reveal that the inhaled infectious dose of mpox is at least 100 times lower than that of SARS-CoV-2 and smallpox, making efficient respiratory aerosol transmission highly unlikely in its current form. However, the study suggests that future viral evolution could alter this dynamic, underscoring the need for continued surveillance.

Interdisciplinary Collaboration for Public Health Insights

“This research is a testament to the power of interdisciplinary collaboration,” said Dr Matthew Tay, corresponding author and Principal Scientist at A*STAR IDL. “By combining expertise in virology with advanced computational modelling from our colleagues at A*STAR IHPC, we have been able to quantitatively address a key question in mpox transmission that would otherwise be almost impossible to study experimentally.”

Dr Fong Yew Leong, first author and Principal Scientist from A*STAR IHPC, further emphasised the role of computational methods in infectious disease research. “The integration of CFD simulations and passive scalar transport modelling allows us to estimate pathogenic transmission risks at higher spatial resolutions compared to general population models. The deep expertise in virology from A*STAR IDL helped us conceptualise inferences from seemingly unrelated, but looming pathogens, such as mpox. Exploring such synergies contributes greatly towards pandemic preparedness.”

The study also highlights key knowledge gaps, particularly the need for further research to determine the precise dose of airborne mpox that results in human infection. The authors recommend ongoing monitoring of new mpox variants for changes in viral shedding and infectivity that could influence transmission potential.

This work exemplifies A*STAR’s commitment to leveraging cross-disciplinary expertise to address pressing public health challenges. As infectious diseases continue to evolve, such innovative interdisciplinary approaches provide better understanding and lead to potential translational outcomes towards development of novel treatments, diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines to safeguard population health.

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For media queries and clarifications, please contact:

Tay Shu Chian

Manager, Corporate Communications

Agency for Science, Technology and Research

Tel: +65 97263652

Email: tay_shu_chian@hq.a-star.edu.sg

Aileen Tan

Manager, Corporate Communications

Agency for Science, Technology and Research

Tel: +65 91866450

Email: aileen_tan@hq.a-star.edu.sg

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About the Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR)

The Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR) is Singapore's lead public sector R&D agency. Through open innovation, we collaborate with our partners in both the public and private sectors to benefit the economy and society. As a Science and Technology Organisation, A*STAR bridges the gap between academia and industry. Our research creates economic growth and jobs for Singapore, and enhances lives by improving societal outcomes in healthcare, urban living, and sustainability. A*STAR plays a key role in nurturing scientific talent and leaders for the wider research community and industry. A*STAR’s R&D activities span biomedical sciences to physical sciences and engineering, with research entities primarily located in Biopolis and Fusionopolis. For ongoing news, visit www.a-star.edu.sg.

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