Challenging our intuitions: How social forces shape success

An international research team led by the University of Zurich has published a review of more than 200 academic studies, revealing that success isn’t just about talent, hard work, or luck – it’s deeply shaped by hidden social forces. The study shows that our intuition about how these social forces shape success is often misleading, and it maps how recent research has challenged long-held assumptions. The collected findings have implications for policy, education, and careers. The authors explained that future efforts to better understand success could pave the way toward social systems where success better reflects quality, talent, and societal values – and where everyone has equal opportunities to flourish, regardless of their backgrounds.

The new review, published in Nature Communications, was led by Manuel S. Mariani, Research Group Leader at the University of Zurich (University Research Priority Program “Social Networks”). The authors reviewed more than 200 scientific papers from diverse disciplines, including sociology, economics, computer science, and management science, covering domains as diverse as science, business, and the arts. The study shows that our intuition about how social forces shape success is often misleading, and it maps how recent research has challenged long-held assumptions.

For example, failure – often seen as a career killer – can be a predictor of future success. A study found that scientist who failed early in securing research funding were more likely to produce groundbreaking work later than those who succeeded immediately. Similarly, in entrepreneurship, research finds that those who fail faster are more likely to learn from failure and build successful companies. The authors suggest that as many systems reward early success, reinforcing inequalities and narrowing opportunities, these findings highlight the need to rethink the importance of early failures for identifying and nurturing talents.

The study also overturns common beliefs about social networks and their impact on the success of products, individual careers, and teams trying to solve complex challenges, among others.

For example, many assume that a celebrity endorsement is the best way to make a product take off. But studies show that persuading a small, tight-knit group of “bridge” individuals connected to different social communities is far more effective at driving mass adoption. These people aren’t famous, but their position in social networks makes them far more influential than celebrities or individuals with many social contacts.

Networks affect individual careers as well. Studies show that different types of social connections help people succeed in different ways. Weak ties – like distant acquaintances – can lead to new job opportunities and novel ideas, while strong ties – like close colleagues or mentors – are better for learning complex skills and gaining support. Yet a recent large-scale experiment involving job seekers on LinkedIn found that the best job opportunities often come from moderately weak ties – not the closest collaborators, but not complete strangers either.

Yet, access to beneficial social connections is not equally distributed. For example, empirical work on the US movie industry indicate that women and men benefit differently from different types of social connections, yet women often lack connections to key decision-makers. This leads the authors to review identity-related biases, finding that while gender diversity can improve team performance, women often face structural barriers to recognition, opportunity access, and career advancements.

The researchers stressed that essential directions for future research include work on how cultural factors, inequality, interventions, and algorithms affect success. “There are increasing debates on whether we live in equitable meritocratic societies. The biases found in the literature do challenge the notion of meritocracy – the belief that success, status, and rewards are purely determined by individual ability and efforts. The positive news is that understanding scientifically the collective dynamics behind success helps map the existing social forces behind success, which can help policymakers and organizations design of more prosperous, meritocratic, and inclusive societies. The overall objective should not be to optimize existing success metrics, but to build better social systems,” says Manuel Mariani