We are no longer living longer, UEA study shows

The rise in human life expectancy has slowed down across Europe since 2011, according to research from the University of East Anglia and partners.

A new study, published today in The Lancet Public Health, reveals that the food we eat, physical inactivity and obesity are largely to blame, as well as the Covid pandemic.

Of all the countries studied, England experienced the biggest slowdown in life expectancy.

It means that rather than looking forward to living longer than our parents or grandparents, we may find that we are dying sooner.

The team says that in order to extend our old age, we need to prioritise healthier lifestyles in our younger years – with governments urged to invest in bold public health initiatives.

Lead researcher Prof Nick Steel, from UEA’s Norwich Medical School, said: “Advances in public health and medicine in the 20^th Century meant that life expectancy in Europe improved year after year. But this is no longer the case.

“From 1990 to 2011, reductions in deaths from cardiovascular diseases and cancers continued to lead to substantial improvements in life expectancy.

“But decades of steady improvements finally slowed around 2011, with marked international differences.

“We found that deaths from cardiovascular diseases were the primary driver of the reduction in life expectancy improvements between 2011–19. Unsurprisingly, the Covid pandemic was responsible for decreases in life expectancy seen between 2019–21.

“After 2011, major risks such as obesity, high blood pressure and high cholesterol either increased or stopped improving in almost all countries.

“Better cholesterol and blood pressure treatments have not been enough to offset the harms from obesity and poor diets,” he added.

The research team studied data from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)’s Global Burden of Disease 2021 – the largest and most comprehensive research to quantify health loss across places and over time, drawing on the work of nearly 12,000 collaborators across more than 160 countries and territories.

They compared changes in life expectancy, causes of death, and population exposure to risk factors across Europe between 1990–2011, 2011–19, and 2019–21.

Countries studied included Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales.

The team say that despite the downturn, we still haven’t reached a biological ceiling for longevity.

Prof Steel explained: “Life expectancy for older people in many countries is still improving, showing that we have not yet reached a natural longevity ceiling.

“Life expectancy mainly reflects mortality at younger ages, where we have lots of scope for reducing harmful risks and preventing early deaths.

“Comparing countries, national policies that improved population health were linked to better resilience to future shocks.”

“Countries like Norway, Iceland, Sweden, Denmark, and Belgium held onto better life expectancy after 2011, and saw reduced harms from major risks for heart disease, helped by government policies.

“In contrast, England and the other UK nations fared worst after 2011 and also during the Covid pandemic, and experienced some of the highest risks for heart disease and cancer, including poor diets.  

“This suggests that stronger government policies are needed to reduce major health risks including obesity, poor diet, and low physical activity - to improve population health over the long term.”

Prof John Newton, from the European Centre for Environment and Human Health at the University of Exeter, said: “These results are a cause for concern especially here in the UK, but also some hope. We should be concerned because many European countries including the UK are showing such poor progress but hopeful because addressing the underlying causes of major illnesses appears to be effective if only improvements in the key risks can be sustained.”

Sarah Price, NHS England, National Director of Public Health, said: “This important study reinforces that prevention is the cornerstone of a healthier society, and is exactly why it will be such a key part of the 10 Year Health Plan which we are working with Government on.  

“The slowdown in life expectancy improvements, particularly due to cardiovascular disease and cancer, highlights the urgent need for stronger action on the root causes — poor diet, physical inactivity, and obesity.

“The NHS is playing its part and has already helped hundreds of thousands of people to lose weight through our 12-week digital Weight Management Programme, while more than a million people a year receive a blood pressure check in NHS pharmacies which are key to identifying cardiovascular issues and significantly improving people’s overall health.

“However, more can action is need across society because we cannot treat our way out of the obesity crisis, and we need to stem it at source.”

This study was led by UEA in collaboration with the Global Burden of Disease Project at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, the University of Exeter and the Department of Health and Social Care, among others. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the UK Department of Health and Social Care.

This publication is based on research funded in part by the Gates Foundation. The findings and conclusions contained within are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect positions or policies of the Gates Foundation.‘Changing life expectancy in European countries 1990–2021: a sub analysis of causes and risk factors from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021’ is published in The Lancet Public Health.

Peer reviewed - Observational study - humans