Would the prohibition of menthol cigarettes cause more harm than good?

New research published in Health Economics indicates that a national prohibition of menthol cigarettes in the United States could increase the number of people who attempt to quit smoking but also support an illegal menthol cigarette market.

For the research, 639 adult menthol smokers made hypothetical choices between menthol and non-menthol cigarettes, menthol and non-menthol e-cigarettes, and attempting to quit. Participants were presented with situations where menthol cigarettes and menthol e-cigarettes were described as either legal, prohibited but available under-the-counter and online from retailers who continue to sell them (illegal retail market), or prohibited and strictly enforced and only available from illegal dealers (illegal street market).

As an example of the results, in a scenario with an illegal retail market for menthol cigarettes (with similar prices to current cigarette prices) and a legal market for menthol e-cigarettes, 33% of menthol smokers would purchase illegal menthol cigarettes and 8.5% would purchase non-menthol cigarettes. In a scenario with an illegal street market for menthol cigarettes and a legal market for menthol e-cigarettes, 29% of menthol smokers would purchase illegal menthol cigarettes and 9.2% would purchase non-menthol cigarettes.

“Our empirical evidence that many menthol smokers are willing to buy cigarettes in illegal markets suggests that a menthol prohibition might not work as well as expected and might have additional unintended consequences that policymakers should consider,” said corresponding author Don Kenkel, PhD, of Cornell University. “If menthol cigarettes are prohibited, it is especially important that smokers have access to acceptable lower-risk sources of nicotine, such as menthol e-cigarettes.”

URL upon publication: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hec.4937

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About the Journal
Health Economics is an international health policy journal publishing articles on all aspects of global health economics. We welcome theoretical contributions, empirical studies, and analyses of health policy from the economic perspective. With a wide scope, Health Economics welcomes contributions on the valuation, determinants and definition of health, health care supply and demand, planning and market mechanisms, treatment micro-economics, and health care system performance.

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