Climate change threatens global cocoa production: New study highlights pollination-based solutions

Cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) is a vital cash-crop for four to six million small-holder farmers across the tropics, and supports a global chocolate industry valued at over USD 100 billion annually. The combination of millions of farmers relying on cocoa for their livelihoods, and increasing global demand for the crop, has driven cocoa plantation expansion and intensification of farming practices, often at the expense of biodiversity and long-term sustainability.

A new research study led by the University of Oxford, in collaboration with Westlake University, China, Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz, Brazil, and University of Göttingen, Germany, has highlighted the significant risks posed to cocoa production by climate change. However, the authors also identified farm management solutions that can both climate-proof cocoa crops and boost productivity without the need to expand plantations into forests.

The research, conducted across three major cocoa-producing countries—Brazil, Ghana, and Indonesia, which together account for 33% of global cocoa production—investigated key factors influencing cocoa yields. The findings revealed that increasing pollination rates above current levels could boost yields by 20%. This demonstrates that insufficient pollination is occurring to produce the maximum possible yield for many cocoa plantations. Separate to the impact of pollination, sites where temperatures were up to 7 degrees warmer had 20-31% lower cocoa yields, underscoring the vulnerability of cocoa-producing regions to the effects of climate change.

Co-author Dr Acheampong Atta-Boateng, who recently completed his doctoral work at the University of Oxford, said: ‘Cocoa is pollinated by tiny insects such as midges and thrips, and it comes as quite a surprise that most of the time there simply isn’t enough pollination happening to produce the cocoa crop that is possible.’

To support sustainable cocoa production, researchers recommend practical strategies to enhance pollination, such as maintaining leaf litter and other understory biomass, preserving soil organic matter, providing moderate shade, and reducing agricultural chemical use. These practices not only increase pollinator abundance, but also help regulate plantation temperatures and improve soil health, ensuring long-term plantation resilience.

Dr Tonya Lander, from the University of Oxford and first author of the study said: ‘This research shows that sustainable agricultural methods can significantly improve cocoa yields without farm expansion or intensification. By adopting biodiversity-centred, climate-resilient farming techniques, the cocoa sector can both increase production and safeguard farmers' livelihoods.’

Dr Tom Wanger of Westlake University, China added: ‘The rising demand for cocoa and the short-term economic benefits to farmers has led to plantation expansion and ecological homogenization at the expense of biodiversity and vital ecosystem services, like pollination. This study highlights the long-term risks of this approach, and how pollination can be a solution that works alongside climate-resilient agricultural systems to achieve long-term, ecologically and financially sustainable solutions.’

Notes to editors

Interviews with the corresponding author are available on request. Media contact: Thomas Wanger, tomcwanger@gmail.com or Tonya Lander, tonya.lander@chch.ox.ac.uk

The paper ‘Global chocolate supply is limited by low pollination and high temperatures’  will be published in Nature Portfolio, Communications Earth & Environment at 10 am GMT / 5 am ET Friday 14 February 2025 at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02072-z

To view a copy of the paper before this under embargo contact Thomas Wanger, tomcwanger@gmail.com or Tonya Lander, tonya.lander@chch.ox.ac.uk

Additional details

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About the University of Oxford

Oxford University has been placed number 1 in the Times Higher Education World University Rankings for the ninth year running, and ​number 3 in the QS World Rankings 2024. At the heart of this success are the twin-pillars of our ground-breaking research and innovation and our distinctive educational offer.

Oxford is world-famous for research and teaching excellence and home to some of the most talented people from across the globe. Our work helps the lives of millions, solving real-world problems through a huge network of partnerships and collaborations. The breadth and interdisciplinary nature of our research alongside our personalised approach to teaching sparks imaginative and inventive insights and solutions.

Through its research commercialisation arm, Oxford University Innovation, Oxford is the highest university patent filer in the UK and is ranked first in the UK for university spinouts, having created more than 300 new companies since 1988. Over a third of these companies have been created in the past five years. The university is a catalyst for prosperity in Oxfordshire and the United Kingdom, contributing £15.7 billion to the UK economy in 2018/19, and supports more than 28,000 full time jobs.

The Department of Biology is a University of Oxford department within the Maths, Physical, and Life Sciences Division. It utilises academic strength in a broad range of bioscience disciplines to tackle global challenges such as food security, biodiversity loss, climate change and global pandemics. It also helps to train and equip the biologists of the future through holistic undergraduate and graduate courses. For more information visit www.biology.ox.ac.uk.

About Westlake University, China

Westlake University was inaugurated in 2018 as the first private university in China. Westlake University has four schools, School of Science, School of Engineering, School of Life Sciences and the School of Medicine to contribute to research and teaching with almost 2,000 employees and 2,200 doctoral students. The Sustainable Agricultural Systems & Engineering lab conducts data-driven work on the benefits of diversified agricultural systems, develops environmental monitoring technology, and translates results into effective policy recommendations

About the Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz, Brazil

Located in Ilhéus, Bahia, Brazil, the Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz (UESC) stands at the heart of the country’s historic cocoa-producing region. With approximately 8,000 students enrolled across 35 undergraduate and 27 graduate programs, UESC is a leading institution in research and education. One of its greatest strengths is the study of the Atlantic Forest, a globally recognized biodiversity hotspot. A key focus of this research is the role of cabrucas—a traditional cocoa agroforestry system where cacao is cultivated under the shade of old-growth Atlantic Forest trees. This sustainable practice plays a crucial role in preserving the extraordinary plant and animal diversity of southern Bahia, reinforcing UESC’s commitment to environmental conservation and sustainable development.

About the University of Göttingen, Germany

The University of Göttingen is an internationally renowned research university. Founded in 1737 in the Age of Enlightenment, the University is committed to the values of social responsibility of science, democracy, tolerance and justice. It offers a comprehensive range of subjects across 13 faculties: in the natural sciences, humanities, social sciences and medicine. With about 28,000 students and more than 210 degree programmes, the University is one of the largest in Germany. Research of the Functional Agrobiodiversity and Agroecology group focuses on socio-economically relevant topics in agroecology, such as the loss of biodiversity and associated ecosystem services by the intensification and expansion of agriculture and climate change in temperate and tropical regions.