The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals. Many of these articles are available for early online access–they are peer-reviewed, but not yet in their final published form.
Below is a selection of articles published early online recently. Some articles are open-access; to view others, members of the media can contact kpflaumer@ametsoc.org for press login credentials.
JOURNAL ARTICLES
Weather Associated with Rapid-Growth California Wildfires
Weather and Forecasting
Strong winds are the main weather factor turning dry fuel into massive California fires. As seen around Los Angeles this month, wildfires that undergo rapid growth are particularly dangerous to human life and infrastructure. This research finds that, “large absolute-growth events generally occur when dead fuels are driest.” Given sufficient dryness, wind is the most important environmental factor influencing how large a fire is and how fast it spreads, and for enabling explosive wildfire growth.
Storylines of Unprecedented Extremes in the Southeast United States
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Some locations are “sitting ducks” for surprising new extremes. Certain areas of the U.S. Southeast have “high potential for surprise” from extreme heat and precipitation events, according to a study that looked at historical extremes and their likelihood in today’s warmer climate. The authors found some locations in which extreme heat events that used to be uncommon are much more likely now–but, crucially, similar extremes have not yet occurred in recent years, meaning that locals and disaster planners are likely unprepared. For example, when Montgomery County, Alabama, experienced its hottest ever July (1985, maximum temperature 39°C/102°F), that kind of heat was only expected every 500 years. Now, it’s likely to occur every 21 years.
Where Have the EF5s Gone? A Closer Look at the “Drought” of the Most Violent Tornadoes in the United States
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
“Drought” of EF5 tornadoes is likely due to stricter ratings, not changes in tornadoes. It has been 11 years since the last EF5-rated tornado in the United States. The authors find that this is due to a slight difference between the older Fujita (F) tornado rating scale and the newer Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale. Under the EF scale, a 200 mph wind gust that destroys a normal single-family home falls within the EF4 category rather than EF5. Because there are few houses built above normal building codes which could survive an EF4 tornado and only be destroyed by an EF5, stricter application of the EF scale has led to an apparent dearth of the highest-rated tornadoes, without the actual tornadoes changing at all.
“We show evidence that the lack of EF5-rated tornadoes in the past decade is less due to a weakening of tornadoes and likely attributable to stricter application of the Enhanced Fujita scale.”
–Lyza, Brooks & Krocak, 2025
Recent Extreme Cold Waves Are Likely Not to Happen Again This Century
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Major cold snaps appear to be dying out in the mid-latitudes. While extreme cold snaps have occurred even as global warming ramps up, a new study suggests similar events are unlikely to recur in the same places within our lifetimes. The authors looked at remarkable cold spells from the past 15 years in Western Europe, Texas, China, and Brazil, and projected their future likelihood in a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Each event was 50-90% likely NOT to occur again by 2100. The authors note, “Our results suggest that the most intense cold snaps, and their associated icy landscapes in mid-latitude regions, are disappearing or have already disappeared due to anthropogenic climate change.”
Coupling of Atmospheric Rivers and Levee Failure Events in California’s Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, 1980–2021
Weather, Climate, and Society
Atmospheric rivers are key contributors to Calif. levee failures. This study finds that while flooding in the agricultural Sacramento–San Joaquin delta has decreased–likely due to state investment in levees–atmospheric rivers (ARs) are a key factor in the floods that still occur. For over 90% of weather-related levee failures between 1980 and 2021, an atmospheric river event had occurred within the preceding 2 weeks.
Contrasting Trends in Colorado Fire Weather Index from Reanalysis and Observations
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Is fire weather increasing in Colorado? Depends on the dataset. Conditions conducive to wildfires (hot, dry, windy) appear to be increasing in Colorado according to reanalysis data–mathematical models that aim to assimilate historical data and fill in gaps in observations. However, this study suggests that the existing observational data do not match those from the reanalysis. No upward trend is seen in the observational data, raising the question of whether the reanalysis data are accurately reflecting conditions, and the need for more long-term observational data.
You can view all research published in AMS Journals at journals.ametsoc.org.
About the American Meteorological Society
The American Meteorological Society advances the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and services for the benefit of society. Founded in 1919, AMS has a membership of around 12,000 professionals, students, and weather enthusiasts. AMS publishes 12 atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic science journals; hosts more than 12 conferences annually; and offers numerous programs and services. Visit us at www.ametsoc.org/.
About AMS Journals
The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals. Some AMS journals are open access. Media login credentials are available for subscription journals. Journals include the Bulletin of the American Meteorolocial Society, Weather, Climate, and Society, the Journal of Climate, and Monthly Weather Review.
Journal
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society