Winners and losers of generative AI in the freelance job market

A new study led by an international research team, including Dr Fabian Braesemann from the Oxford Internet Institute, part of the University of Oxford, shows how Generative AI tools like ChatGPT are reshaping the workforce.

The research, published on 29 January 2025 in the Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, analyses over three million job postings on a global freelancing platform, making it the largest study of its kind.

Key insights

The large-scale study finds that the impact of Generative AI on the labour market is complex – creating opportunities in some areas while reducing demand in others:
 

• Reduction of demand in some areas. In some areas of work (such as highly repetitive writing tasks, for example), ChatGPT leads to an effective reduction of labour demand, relative to the overall labour market trend. Jobs involving skills that can be partly substituted, such as writing and translating, have seen demand drop by 20 to 50 per cent, as tools take over these tasks.
• New opportunities for freelancers. Generative AI is driving demand for skills that complement Generative AI technologies. This can partially be attributed to the hype around artificial intelligence, which creates new AI-related products and services that require specialists in chatbot development or machine learning. The demand for chatbot and natural language processing jobs has almost tripled since the launch of ChatGPT.
• Experience matters. For skills that are substitutable by ChatGPT, such as writing and translation work, the largest reduction in demand was for experienced workers. For complementary skills like coding there was a reduction in demand for novice workers as companies sought out professionals with greater experience.
• Generative AI is not destroying freelance jobs. ChatGPT is not the big job killer many fear; instead, the net demand for freelancing jobs has increased after the launch of ChatGPT. Generative AI is the latest trend in the long digital transformation process of the economy that started with the rise of computers and the internet.

“Generative AI is accelerating the transformation of the job market; a process that started decades ago with the introduction of computers to the workplace,” said Dr Braesemann.  “It is the latest development of that digitalisation process: whilst the demand for partly substitutable skills such as writing and translating has reduced, we also see new jobs being created, such as roles creating chatbots or other machine learning related jobs.”

The study comprises a team of international researchers and industry experts exploring the impact of generative AI tools such as ChatGPT on the job market.  The co-authors of this new study are Ole Teutloff and Johanna Einsiedler, from the Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science, Dr Otto Kässi, from the ETLA Economic Research, Dr Fabian Braesemann, from the Oxford Internet Institute, Pamela Mishkin, and Assistant Professor R. Maria del Rio-Chanona, University College London and Complexity Science Hub Vienna.

“The widespread take up of Chat GPT and similar AI tools creates challenges for workers, but also presents opportunities to make processes more efficient and develop new products and services,” added first author of the study, Dr Ole Teutloff, Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science.

“Despite fears of mass job losses, this study suggests a more balanced reality. New technologies like ChatGPT are not just reshaping the demand for specific skills, but are also driving shifts in expertise,” concluded corresponding author Assistant Professor R. Maria del Rio-Chanona, University College London and Complexity Science Hub.

“For substitutable skills, demand shifts away from expert workers, while for complementary skills, demand may shift toward greater expertise. Recognizing these shifts is key to adapting to the new world of work.”

Notes for Editors 

This study focused on the freelance job market in the context of Generative AI. For more information and briefings, please contact: Sara Spinks / Veena McCoole, Media and Communications Manager.  T: 01865 280527 E: press@oii.ox.ac.uk

Read the article here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268124004591?via%3Dihub DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106845

About the research

The research was based on a large-scale data analysis of job postings from a leading online freelance platform using software analysis tool BERTopic and others during January 2021 and September 2023, covering around one year of data before and after the introduction of ChatGPT.

Funding information

Dr Otto Kässi’s work was funded by TT-säätiö (project title: “Tekoäly työelämässä – Miten käy Suomen kilpailukyvyn?”)

Assistant Professor R. Maria del Rio-Chanona’s research was supported by the James S. McDonnell Foundation.

Dr Fabian Braesemann is supported by funding from the Oxford Internet Institute’s Research Programme on AI & Work, funded by the Dieter Schwarz Stiftung gGmbH.

We are grateful for the support obtained by Open AI in providing access to the GPT API.

The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

About the Oxford Internet Institute (OII) 

The Oxford Internet Institute (OII) is a multidisciplinary research and teaching department of the University of Oxford, dedicated to the social science of the Internet. Drawing from many different disciplines, the OII works to understand how individual and collective behaviour online shapes our social, economic and political world. Since its founding in 2001, research from the OII has had a significant impact on policy debate, formulation and implementation around the globe, as well as a secondary impact on people’s wellbeing, safety and understanding. Drawing on many different disciplines, the OII takes a combined approach to tackling society’s big questions, with the aim of positively shaping the development of the digital world for the public good.

About the University of Oxford   

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