China's temperature extremes: a 60-year climate chronicle

A recent study sheds light on the spatio-temporal patterns of temperature extremes in China over the past six decades, revealing alarming warming trends and highlighting the critical role of atmospheric circulation factors. By analyzing 14 extreme temperature indices across 2138 weather stations, the research offers key insights into the shifting nature of these extreme events, with far-reaching consequences for both the environment and human society. These findings are crucial for anticipating severe weather events and guiding future disaster preparedness strategies, underlining the urgent need for action to address the escalating impacts of climate change in China.

As global temperatures rise, extreme climate events have become more frequent and intense, driving a surge in natural disasters and resulting in significant socio-economic losses. The World Meteorological Organization reports that nearly 12,000 disasters occurred between 1970 and 2021, causing economic losses of approximately $4.3 trillion. The intensification of these events has garnered global attention due to their devastating effects on both ecosystems and human populations. Understanding the patterns, frequency, and severity of temperature extremes is vital for crafting effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. The spatial variability of these changes, influenced by geographical and atmospheric factors, necessitates in-depth research on the evolution of extreme temperature events across China.

Published (DOI: 10.1007/s11442-024-2275-2) on October 10, 2024, in the Journal of Geographical Sciences, the study, led by researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, provides a detailed examination of temperature extremes in China. By analyzing data from 2138 weather stations, the study offers comprehensive insights into the nation's climate shifts, focusing on 14 extreme temperature indices.

The study rigorously analyzed temperature data from 1961 to 2020, using daily temperature records from 2138 stations across China. It uncovered notable changes in both cold and warm extremes. Cold extremes, such as cold nights, cold days, frost days, and icing days, showed a significant decline, with rates of −6.64, −2.67, −2.96, and −0.97 days per decade, respectively. In contrast, warm extremes, including warm nights, warm days, summer days, and tropical nights, exhibited marked increases, with rates of 8.44, 5.18, 2.81, and 2.50 days per decade, respectively. Additionally, the study found that the lowest and highest temperatures have risen by 0.47, 0.22, 0.26, and 0.16°C per decade, respectively.

To better understand these changes, the researchers used Pearson’s correlation and wavelet coherence analyses to explore the connection between extreme temperature indices and atmospheric circulation factors. The study found a strong correlation between temperature extremes and global atmospheric drivers, with particular emphasis on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which significantly influenced all 14 extreme temperature indices. Furthermore, the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) showed a strong positive correlation with warm extremes and a negative correlation with cold extremes, further underlining its role in shaping China's climate patterns. These findings reveal the complex relationship between global atmospheric circulation and local temperature extremes in China.

Luo Yuanbo, the lead author of the study, emphasized the importance of these findings: “Our in-depth analysis of temperature extremes over the past six decades highlights a clear warming trend across China, with profound environmental and societal implications. The correlations between extreme temperature indices and atmospheric circulation factors, like the AMO and AO, show how global climate drivers are influencing local conditions. Understanding these interactions is crucial for predicting severe weather events and formulating effective disaster prevention strategies.”

This research holds significant practical value. By mapping the spatio-temporal patterns of temperature extremes and their connections to atmospheric circulation, it enhances predictive models for extreme weather events in China. The study’s findings are essential for developing disaster preparedness strategies, enabling policymakers to allocate resources more effectively and protect communities from climate-related risks. Additionally, the insights into global atmospheric influences contribute to broader international climate efforts and the development of adaptive strategies.

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References

DOI

10.1007/s11442-024-2275-2

Original Source URL

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-024-2275-2

Funding information

National Key Research and Development Program of China, No.2021YFB3900900.

About Journal of Geographical Sciences

Journal of Geographical Sciences is an international and multidisciplinary peer-reviewed journal focusing on human-nature relationships. It publishes papers on physical geography, natural resources, environmental sciences, geographic information, remote sensing and cartography. Manuscripts come from different parts of the world.