Collected climate data from Nigeria that researchers need

Climate models are critical for scientists and policymakers in predicting what the future climate will be like. But climate models are no better than the data we feed them.

These critical data can be difficult to access, or practically impossible to produce for certain areas of the planet. But a new study has obtained good data from one of the most important areas in Africa – Nigeria.

Africa’s population is growing rapidly and what happens there will affect us all.

“We have a lot of detail about Norway, but know little about Nigeria," says Edgar Hertwich, a professor of industrial ecology at NTNU's Department of Energy and Process Engineering.

The new study does something about that. The research has been published in Buildings & Cities.

Africa’s most populous country

Chibuikem Chrysogonus Nwagwu took a master's degree in industrial ecology at Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU). He was supported by both Hertwich and by Sahin Akin, a doctoral research fellow in the same department, in obtaining the important figures.

The researchers looked at climate emissions linked to housing in Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa.

Nigeria's population has grown rapidly over the last 30 years, nearly doubling from approximately 100 million in the 1990s to over 220 million in 2024, driven by high fertility rates and a youthful demographic. As a result, the country has – and needs – a lot of housing.

The country now aims to reduce climate emissions by 20 per cent compared to 2015 before 2030. The researchers' conclusion is clear.

“If Nigeria is to achieve its emissions targets, energy efficiency must improve, other building materials must be used and the electricity must come less from carbon-based sources,” Nwagwu and his colleagues wrote.

More than 85 per cent of electricity in Nigeria comes from fossil energy sources, largely gas. The country has large revenues from oil and gas but spends relatively little on research and education. In return, the Nigerian government subsidizes the importation of fuel from abroad.

Consequently, there is room for improvement.

Nwagwu considered scenarios from 2020 for homes with an average lifespan of 50 years. The result is a study that presents valuable information about structure, geometry, energy use, and opportunities to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases from Africa's most populous country.

“This is the type of information that is missing in global climate studies,” Hertwich says.

Hertwich has had Nwagwu as an assistant for two years, which has helped finance his master's studies. Now Nwagwu is employed as a researcher at Sintef Manufacturing and wants to do his PhD.

Norwegian regulations discourage students from abroad

“If we want to do something about the climate, we need people like Nwagwu,” Hertwich says.

Newly implemented tuition fees for students outside of the European Economic Zone make it much more difficult for many foreign students to come here.

That includes students from Africa. However, if the student finds funding, it is quite possible to take an advanced degree in Norway.

“I think we should educate both master's and PhD students on climate protection in Africa. Africa’s population is growing rapidly and what happens there will affect us all," Hertwich said.

Source: Chibuikem Chrysogonus Nwagwu, Sahin Akin, Edgar G. Hertwich. Modeling Nigerian residential dwellings: bottom-up approach and scenario analysis. Buildings & Cities. 2024. Volume: 5 Issue: 1 Page/Article: 521–539 DOI: 10.5334/bc.452