Age-period-cohort analysis of cutaneous malignant melanoma incidence in the United States from 1987 to 2016

Background and objectives

The prevalence and fatality rates of cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) have been rising, particularly among the elderly. This study analyzes CMM incidence trends in the United States elderly population from 1987 to 2016 to inform prevention and management strategies.

Methods

Using incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database spanning 1989 to 2008, we calculated the age-adjusted standardized population incidence rates for CMM in elderly individuals. The Joinpoint software was employed to estimate annual percent change and analyze trends in CMM incidence among elderly individuals from 1987 to 2016.

Results

The study included 56,997 elderly CMM patients from eight Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries, of whom 36,726 were male (64.4%). The age-adjusted CMM incidence rate from 2012 to 2016 was 0.99 per 1,000, a 2.8-fold increase from 1987–1991 (95% confidence interval: 2.7–2.9). Incidence rates increased with age and birth cohort, peaking at 1.53 per 1,000 males and 0.59 per 1,000 females aged 85+ during 2012–2016. Birth cohort effects also showed a continuous increase.

Conclusions

This study reveals a substantial increase in CMM incidence rates among the elderly from 1987 to 2016, particularly between 2012 and 2016. Incidence rates escalated with age and birth cohort, with the highest rates observed in individuals aged 85 and older.

Full text

https://www.xiahepublishing.com/2835-3315/CSP-2024-00019

The study was recently published in the Cancer Screening and Prevention.

Cancer Screening and Prevention (CSP) publishes high-quality research and review articles related to cancer screening and prevention. It aims to provide a platform for studies that develop innovative and creative strategies and precise models for screening, early detection, and prevention of various cancers. Studies on the integration of precision cancer prevention multiomics where cancer screening, early detection and prevention regimens can precisely reflect the risk of cancer from dissected genomic and environmental parameters are particularly welcome.

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