A national indicator for a just energy transition

The Energy Transition Vulnerability Index (ETVI) quantifies the vulnerability of nations to adverse impacts of transitioning away from fossil fuels. The COP28 agreement has called for all countries to wind down use of fossil fuels to combat climate change—but the agreement stipulates that these transitions should not disproportionately harm historically marginalized and vulnerable stakeholders. Xunpeng Shi and colleagues create a method of quantifying energy transition vulnerability for 135 countries from 2010 to 2020. The indicator focuses on exposure—which captures the magnitude of the changes required—, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, using multiple indicators for each dimension of vulnerability. Exposure is quantified by the share of fossil fuels in the energy mix and the contribution of fossil fuels to a country's revenue. Sensitivity is assessed by a country’s energy consumption, poverty rate, level of inequality, and demographics. Adaptive capacity is measured through economic development, scientific and technological capabilities, educational attainment, and financial resources. Overall, countries in the Global South are in a more challenging position than the Global North. Vulnerability has decreased globally since 2010, but the COVID-19 pandemic interrupted this trend. The authors recommend that countries with high emissions but low vulnerability, which the authors term “leapfrog countries,” including the US, Canada, and Australia, aggressively transition, while countries with the reverse positionality—low emissions but high vulnerability—, which the authors term “potential challenges countries” should focus on sustainable economic growth without growing emissions. According to the authors, the ETVI can help countries pinpoint problems with their energy transition efforts and help international actors direct support to the most vulnerable nations as the transition unfolds. 

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