HSE scientists have examined potential impact of nuclear power on sustainable development

Researchers at HSE University have developed a set of mathematical models to predict the impact of nuclear power on the Sustainable Development Index. If the share of nuclear power in the global energy mix increases to between 20% and 25%, the global Sustainable Development Index (SDI) is projected to grow by one-third by 2050. In scenarios where the share of nuclear power grows more slowly, the increase in the SDI is found to be lower. The study has been published in Nuclear Energy and Technology.

Climate change, disparities in living standards, energy shortages, and other challenges are driving humanity to seek solutions that can ensure sustainable development in the future. Some scientists believe that re-evaluating the role of nuclear power in the energy mix could be a key factor.

Researchers at HSE University have developed a set of mathematical models to predict how changes in the share of nuclear power could impact social, economic, and environmental indicators globally. To evaluate the impact of the energy mix, the researchers used the Sustainable Development Index (SDI), which measures progress toward achieving the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set by the United Nations in 2015: eradicating poverty, improving public health, ensuring quality education, preserving the environment, and more.

The calculations employed an interdisciplinary approach that incorporated several elements: intersystem interaction theory, management of key target indicators using a matrix of core competencies, and a vector interpretation of optimal management processes. This approach made it possible to account for the mutual influence of the systems selected for analysis, to identify factors that contribute to an increase in the index, and to visualise and evaluate the results.

The scientists examined three scenarios describing changes in the share of nuclear power (NP) in global energy consumption: a scenario with a significant decrease to 1-3%, a scenario with gradual growth to 7-10%, and a scenario with rapid expansion to 63-68%. Each scenario was analysed considering different trends: either a rapid increase in the share of renewable energy sources coupled with a decrease in traditional hydrocarbons, or the continued use of fossil fuels alongside slow growth in renewable energy.

According to the forecasts, the most effective strategy would be to increase the share of nuclear power to 20-25% of total global energy consumption by 2050. This increase could reduce carbon dioxide emissions, boost the Sustainable Development Index by 36%, and raise it to 0.7–0.75 from its current value of 0.55. The scientists note that while an economic downturn is expected in the initial stages of implementing such a scenario due to the need for technology development, the indicator will eventually increase.

'The proposed advanced development scenario occupies an intermediate position between the highly dynamic development and slow growth scenarios. It involves increasing the share of nuclear generation by nearly five times compared to current levels. However, due to existing constraints, it falls short of the highly dynamic development scenario by a factor of 2.5,' according to Andrey Podchufarov, co-author of the paper, Professor at the HSE Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs.

In the scenario where the share of nuclear power is reduced to 1-3%, the Sustainable Development Index declines. The researchers attribute this to rising energy costs, which will lead to job losses, reduced production, and a decline in well-being for the population. Some developed countries may improve their economic positions, but this will likely come at the expense of lowering living standards in developing countries and increasing the proportion of people living below the poverty line. Moreover, this approach does not address the issue of carbon dioxide emissions. The projected SDI for this scenario is estimated to be between 0.25 and 0.3 by 2050.

In the scenario where the share of nuclear power grows slowly to 7-10%, the index will initially increase but is expected to decline by 2050. The scientists explain that the increase in energy consumption and depletion of natural resources will drive up energy prices, and the share of nuclear power will be insufficient to stabilise these prices. With this approach, the SDI is projected to range from 0.45 to 0.5.

The scenario of a highly dynamic increase in the share of nuclear power to 63-68% requires substantial financial investments in the early stages of expanding nuclear generation capacity. This could potentially lead to a redistribution of funds, underfunding of certain industries, and, as a result, a decline in the index during the initial decades. The SDI for this scenario is projected to be between 0.85 and 0.90 by 2050. However, this scenario is considered unfeasible due to existing resource constraints.

'Given the increasing energy demands, the need to address inequality and unfair distribution of resources, and the desire to reduce the environmental footprint, our study underscores the importance of continued support for nuclear power technologies to enhance the SDI,' comments Anastasia Galkina, PhD in Economics from the HSE Doctoral School of Economics and co-author of the paper. 'Our ideas have already been incorporated into Rosatom's strategy for advancing nuclear power in Russia.'