Global warming's economic blow: Risks rise more rapidly for the rich

In a new study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), researchers analysed how erratic weather events, increasingly intensified by global warming, affect global production and consumption across different income groups. The results confirm previous studies that the poorest people worldwide bear the greatest economic risks from climate change. Surprisingly, the risk for the wealthy is growing the fastest. Economies in transition like Brazil or China are also highly vulnerable to severe impacts and negative trade effects. Across countries, these countries face the highest risks due to severe impacts of volatile weather and adverse trade effects. As the planet continues to warm, these risks are expected to worsen across most countries, with ripple effects along global supply chains, impacting goods and services worldwide.

“In the next 20 years, climate change will increase economic risks from erratic weather”, states PIK scientist Anders Levermann. “The highest risks remain with the poorest around the world. But the increase of economic risk is strongest for the wealthy, in countries like the US and the EU. Consumers all around the world, regardless of their income, will thus face increasing challenges due to global warming – without a transition towards carbon neutrality we will eventually not be able to meet these challenges.”

Lennart Quante, Sven N. Willner, Christian Otto, Anders Levermann (2024): Global economic impact of weather variability on the rich and the poor. Nature Sustainability. [DOI: 10.1038/s41893-024-01430-7]