The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals. Many of these articles are available for early online access–they are peer-reviewed, but not yet in their final published form.
Below is a selection of articles published early online recently. Some articles are open-access; to view others, members of the media can contact kpflaumer@ametsoc.org for press login credentials.
JOURNAL ARTICLES
The Changing Morphology of Global Precipitation Systems during the Last Two Decades
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Global precipitation systems are getting flatter in morphology. Precipitation systems (convective storms, cyclones, and other weather systems that drop rain, hail or snow) across the world have on average become wider in relation to their height since 2001. The authors suggest that this flattening of precipitation systems could be attributed to effects of global warming, including enhanced atmospheric stability (which limits a system’s vertical expansion) and increased moisture availability in the atmosphere, which encourages a system to expand over larger areas.
Red-Wattled Lapwing (Vanellus indicus): A Traditional Rain Forecaster for Tribal Farmers of Southwestern Rajasthan
Weather, Climate, and Society
Bird nests predict rainfall in Rajasthan. The authors found that traditional knowledge about nesting behaviors of the red-wattled lapwing (a bird that builds nests on the ground around agricultural fields) is useful for helping farmers in Rajasthan, India predict seasonal rainfall in rural areas where “modern” meteorological information is often less available. Average bird nest locations, number of eggs, etc., correlated well with seasonal rainfall in a field study. Yet knowledge of these nature-based indicators is being lost among younger generations. Read more about this study in a new post on the AMS blog.
Heat Stress Metrics, Trends, and Extremes in the Southeastern United States
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Heat stress increasing in U.S. Southeast. Wet bulb globe temperatures (an approximation of heat stress on the human body, incorporating sun, wind, and humidity) during the summer have increased in much of the southeastern United States since 1950, especially at night, the authors find. An increase in extreme heat stress days was especially notable in Florida and Louisiana, with cities like Tampa and New Orleans experiencing two more extreme heat stress days and nights each decade and an exponential increase in extreme nighttime heat stress events in the past decade.
Conoce Tus Opciones: The Challenges of Communicating Rip Current Information in Spanish
Weather, Climate, and Society
“Hangover currents” and translation pitfalls. Efforts to translate National Weather Service brochures about rip currents into Spanish show the challenge of trying to translate complex terms. While Spanish-speaking participants who read a translated brochure found it overall effective at conveying the risks of rip currents, they identified numerous translation issues. The most common was about the Spanish language term NWS used for rip currents “corrientes de resaca”; to many Spanish speakers, “resaca” means “hangover.” An updated version of the brochure now uses the term “corrientes marinas” (marine currents).
Anthropogenic Climate Change Will Intensify European Explosive Storms Analogous to Alex, Eunice, and Xynthia
Journal of Climate
Warming climate may increase severity of European ‘bomb’ storms. Researchers modeled three explosive, rapidly intensifying ‘bomb’ storms that occurred over Europe since 2010, and then modeled similar storms under the warmer conditions predicted for the end of the century under a high anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions scenario. While some storm patterns became more or less frequent in a warmer climate, all three storm types showed increased precipitation and stronger winds.
Situational Awareness and Safety: Using Weather Information to Inform Decision-Making in Antarctic Environments
Weather, Climate, and Society
Living with Antarctic weather. Weather can be life-and-death for researchers, tourism operators, and others living in Antarctica; yet the level of training they’re given varies widely, and people rely on a patchwork of private and governmental weather services in the absence of a unified Antarctic weather service. This paper explores how a variety of people in Antarctica use weather information for decision-making, including data and service gaps that may limit their ability to plan out hour-to-hour activities.
“Local knowledge is really important ... . I know at [location] one of the first things they were saying is ... if you look over to [location] and you see the horizon [is] really fuzzy, it doesn’t matter what you’re doing, turn around and come home because in an hour’s time … you’re going to be sorry if you’re not home or in a shelter.”
–Antarctic research participant
Spanish Speakers in the United States Report Differing Levels of Weather Salience Based on their Ethnocultural Background
Weather, Climate, and Society
Weather awareness in U.S. Spanish speakers. Foreign-born Spanish speakers in the United States are more likely to pay attention to daily and severe weather than those born in the U.S., a national survey of Spanish speakers found. Importance placed on weather did not vary based on geographic location in the U.S., but the researchers found significant differences in psychological attachment to weather based on ethnic origin, with those born in Cuba reporting the most attachment, and those born in Venezuela the least. Weather communicators should factor in cultural background rather than simply translating local weather information into Spanish, the authors suggest.
The 2023/24 El Niño and the Feasibility of Long-Lead ENSO Forecasting
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Predicting El Niño a year ahead. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system is the major driver of interannual climate variability worldwide, so predicting its shifts has major societal impacts. EDCM, a statistical forecast, predicted the recent 2023/2024 El Niño reasonably well 11-14 months in advance, compared to the current operational forecasts (with six months’ lead time). The authors say their results “illustrate strong potential for expanding the statistical operational ENSO forecasts to 12 and 18 months in advance.”
A Warning System for the Laseyer Wind Storm in a Narrow and Deep Valley of Northeastern Switzerland
Weather and Forecasting
Preventing train derailments by wind. In 2007, a rare “Laseyer” wind storm derailed a train in Switzerland’s Schwende Valley. Subsequent attempts to create a warning system have resulted in costly false alarms. The authors describe a new warning system put in place by the train company, Appenzeller Bahnen, and partners, that aims to avoid false alarms while never missing a real, dangerous Laseyer wind event.
Impact of Extreme Rainfall on High-Speed Rail (HSR) Delays in Major Lines of China
Weather, Climate, and Society
Rain delays on Chinese high-speed rail. Extreme rainfall can cause train delays and hazards such as mudslides. This study (using 2015-2017 data) found that extreme rainfall significantly increased delays on high-speed rail services in eastern China, with different measures of rainfall (total daily rainfall, high-intensity rainfall, etc.) impacting different HSR lines differently.
You can view all research published in AMS Journals at journals.ametsoc.org.
About the American Meteorological Society
The American Meteorological Society advances the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and services for the benefit of society. Founded in 1919, AMS has a membership of around 12,000 professionals, students, and weather enthusiasts. AMS publishes 12 atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic science journals; hosts more than 12 conferences annually; and offers numerous programs and services. Visit us at www.ametsoc.org/.
About AMS Journals
The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals. Some AMS journals are open access. Media login credentials are available for subscription journals. Journals include the Bulletin of the American Meteorolocial Society, Weather, Climate, and Society, the Journal of Climate, and Monthly Weather Review.
Journal
Weather Climate and Society