Scientists identify promising Colorado wilderness areas for wolf recolonization

Fort Collins, Colo., Sept. 25, 2023 – After voters in Colorado passed a first-of-its-kind ballot initiative to reintroduce a large predator to the landscape, management professionals were tasked with reintroducing wolves to the state and considering where they will expand their range after release.

New research published in the Journal of Applied Ecology addresses this question by investigating the ways wolves move through the landscape and where they face the risk of human-wildlife conflict. Scientists identified a complex of federal Wilderness areas outside of Aspen as the best location based on several metrics that considered wolf ecology and the potential for conflict with humans. This area, according to the study, provides plenty of well-connected, high-quality habitat for wolves in an area with high social tolerance and low livestock density.

The reintroduction of species into historically-occupied areas is a commonly-used tool in efforts to restore ecosystems and recover threatened species – but it can be tricky to understand where species, especially large, highly-mobile ones such as wolves, are likely to establish themselves in the new area. Researchers tackled this challenge by using an advanced analysis framework that enabled them to consider wolf movement behavior, the risk of conflicts with humans, and habitat quality to predict relative survival time, landscape connectivity, and patterns of site philopatry (how long wolves might stay within newly occupied areas) in their predictions of dispersal and conflict risk.

"The management of controversial species, such as wolves, is already a difficult task,” said lead investigator Mark Ditmer, a research ecologist at the USDA Forest Service’s Rocky Mountain Research Station. “Given this species hasn't lived in Colorado since the 1940s, understanding where they are likely to move, establish packs, or come into conflict with people is an even taller order. We hope the analytical framework we used here can give managers a head start by providing updatable models of likely wolf dispersals and conflict risks that may help with the dual goals of establishing a viable population while minimizing conflict with people and livestock.”

Kathy Zeller, a Forest Service research biologist at the Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, added that the results of this study highlight two important points.

“The first is the growing ability of models to incorporate multiple criteria that are important for wildlife, such as movement parameters, connectivity, and risk – which are all important considerations for restoration efforts,” Zeller said. “The second is the critical role of Wilderness areas in providing habitat and connectivity for species that have a history of conflict with humans.”

Researchers say this flexible analysis is promising beyond wolf reintroduction in Colorado – it can help managers balance conservation goals with human-wildlife coexistence in changing ecosystems. For controversial species prone to human-wildlife conflict, the ability to look at movement alongside conflict risk enables managers to focus on proactively minimizing human-wildlife conflicts. In this way, managers can minimize conflict with local communities while increasing the likelihood of successful restoration efforts.

About USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station

The Rocky Mountain Research Station is one of five Forest Service research stations serving federal and state agencies, international organizations, Tribes, academia, non-profit groups, and the public. RMRS researchers work in a range of biological, physical, and social science fields to promote sustainable management of the nation's diverse forests and rangelands. The station develops and delivers scientific knowledge and innovative technologies with a focus on informing policy and land-management decisions. Working out of 15 laboratories across the Western U.S., RMRS researchers work in collaboration with a range of partners, including other agencies, academia, nonprofit groups, and industry.