Anomalies for lake temperature, ice thickness and ice cover (IMAGE)
Caption
The left columns contain data over time - at global average and annual scales - for model-projected lake surface temperatures, lake ice thickness and lake ice cover duration. There are differently colored series for the different scenarios being modelled, which are simulations of: • historical lakes in black • pre-industrial lakes: how they would behave in a climate without the industrial revolution in pink, • potential future outcomes for lakes based on the severity of our emissions in blue (low emissions), yellow (medium emissions), and red (high emissions) In this left column, each series is presented as a deviation from the pre-industrial state of lakes. This deviation is defined as an "anomaly". As well, each series has a band of shading around it. In the time series plots of the left column, these bands represent the standard deviation in projections in our ensemble, and in the right column the band represents the full range of the projections In the right column, these same anomalies - but smoothed over 20-years - are plotted against global average air temperature for matching years and scenarios in what we call "scaling plots". This lets us identify impacts based on global warming level. Along the scaling line, colored dots and year labels show the time at which an impact is reached according to each scenario.
Credit
(c) Nature geoscience publication 'Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing'
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License
CC BY-NC-ND