El Niño changes (IMAGE)
Caption
Figure 3. El Niño frequency change in the 21st century. Red, green, and gray dots indicate extreme El Niño events (i.e. Niño3 omega is negative), moderate El Niño events (i.e. positive omega but with greater than 0.5 standardized SST anomaly in Niño3 region), and non-El Niño years, respectively. Results are based on (a) the historical simulations during 1901-2010, (b, c) the original and corrected projections of the extreme El Niño frequency in RCP4.5 scenario during 2011-2098. All the frequency is calculated per 100 years. (d) Histogram of the extreme El Niño frequency in each magnitude bin of the Niño3 SST anomaly (interval: 0.5 standard deviation). The 95% confidence interval of the extreme El Niño frequency is estimated by bootstrap test. (e) Frequency of extreme and moderate El Niño, defined by the Niño3 SST anomaly in boreal winter being greater than 1.5 (red line) and being 0.5-1.5 standard deviation (green line), respectively. The frequency of the extreme and moderate El Niño events (per 100 years) in the historical simulations and future projections are represented by gray and blue Arabic numbers, respectively. (f) As in (e), but for the results defined by Niño3 omega anomaly in boreal winter.
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