The "winter is coming" effect. (IMAGE) CNRS Caption Figure A shows the variation in the birth rate (pathogen transmission rate, solid line) and death rate (recovery rate of infected hosts, dotted line) over time (the time unit is a day). The gray shading represents "winter" for the pathogen (in "winter" the birth rate is lower than the death rate). Figure B shows the probability of the emergence of the pathogen (red curve), depending on the day of the year at which it is introduced. This probability is very low in "winter" (low transmission rate), but also just before winter (red shading). This very significant decrease in the probability of emergence just before winter is the "winter is coming" effect. Credit Sylvain Gandon Usage Restrictions None License Licensed content Disclaimer: AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert system.