Illustrative example of using model to track COVID-19 community spread risk. (IMAGE)

The University of Hong Kong

Illustrative example of using model to track COVID-19 community spread risk.

Caption

Our model uses population movement to predict expected cases. The predicted spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus can be used as a benchmark to identify which locales are 'outliers', which have significantly more or less cases than expected (given the movement data). The graph is an illustration of what our model showed on January 29. Prefectures to the left of the dashed line are outliers that have significantly more than expected cases, i.e., a higher level of unexplained or community transmission. Our model identified Wenzhou as having the most severe community transmission risk on January 29, 2020. The government announced a full quarantine of the prefecture on February 2, 2020.

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Nature

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