Observational constraints on the future surface climate and climate-driven carbon cycle changes in the Amazon forest region. (IMAGE)
Caption
The horizontal axes represent past global trends in surface air temperature (1980–2014) in °C per year. The vertical axes show future projections for the Amazon: (a) surface air temperature change (°C), (b) precipitation change (%), and (c) climate change-driven carbon sink (GtC per year) as estimated by the CMIP6 models. Pearson’s correlation coefficients and p-values are indicated at the bottom of each panel. Horizontal box plots display the mean (white line), 17–83% range (box), and 5–95% range (horizontal bar) of observed global temperature trends from HadCRUT4 (light blue). Vertical box plots provide the same information but for raw CMIP6 models (black) and the constrained ranges using observations (teal). The emergent constraint is estimated for 120–139 year means under the 1pctCO2 scenario and for 2072–2091 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, both corresponding to an intermodel mean of 4.4 °C warming relative to preindustrial levels. The figure is adapted from Figs. 2 and S11 of Melnikova et al. (2024).
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