Risk score with 6 routinely available lab tests accurately predicts kidney failure

Researchers developed a new risk equation, based on six routinely available patient parameters, that yielded improved performance in estimating the risk of a chronic kidney disease (CKD) patient to progress to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) requiring kidney replacement therapy (KRT).

A novel risk equation for the timely identification of chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients at risk for progressing to kidney failure requiring kidney replacement therapy was developed in 4,915 patients with CKD stage 1-5 with and without albuminuria, from the German Chronic Kidney Disease (GCKD) Study. It includes six laboratory tests: serum creatinine, albumin, cystatin C, and urea, in addition to hemoglobin and the urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio. The newly derived 6-variable (Z6) risk score achieved high predictive performance and good calibration both in a resampling approach in the GCKD study and in three independent validation cohorts that included a total of 3,063 patients with CKD. Implementation of this risk equation in clinical practice holds promise for enhanced patient care.

###

American Journal of Kidney Diseases (AJKD)

ARTICLE TITLE: A Predictive Model for Progression of CKD to Kidney Failure Based on Routine Laboratory Tests

AUTHORS: Helena U. Zacharias, PhD, Michael Altenbuchinger, PhD, Ulla T. Schultheiss, MD, Johannes Raffler, PhD, Fruzsina Kotsis, MD, Sahar Ghasemi, MSc, Ibrahim Ali, MBBS, MSc, Barbara Kollerits, PhD, MPH, Marie Metzger, PhD, Inga Steinbrenner, MSc, Peggy Sekula, PhD, Ziad A. Massy, MD, Christian Combe, MD, PhD, Philip A. Kalra, MD, Florian Kronenberg, MD, Bénédicte Stengel, MD, PhD, Kai-Uwe Eckardt, MD, Anna Köttgen, MD, MPH, Matthias Schmid, PhD, Wolfram Gronwald, PhD, Peter J. Oefner, MD, PhD, on behalf of the GCKD investigators

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1053/j.ajkd.2021.05.018

---

---