A study examines the effectiveness of restrictive immigration policies. Restrictive immigration policies have been thought to redirect potential migrants toward illegal channels, but the hypothesis is difficult to test empirically. Shane Johnson and colleagues developed an agent-based computational model that simulated potential migrants' decisions about whether and how to migrate and their probability of success under the destination country's policy. The model parameters were calibrated based on an original survey conducted in Jamaica, a country with a high propensity for voluntary migration. Under a baseline policy in which anyone eligible for a visa could migrate, only 44% of aspiring migrants were able to move abroad through legal channels. Restricting student or high-skilled worker visas had a negligible effect on immigration. Restricting low-skilled worker or family reunification visas reduced immigration by 21% and 32% from baseline migration levels, respectively, but also increased unauthorized immigration by 14% and 24%, respectively. Furthermore, the restrictions have little effect on unauthorized immigration even if unauthorized immigrants were apprehended at a rate of 80-90%. The results suggest that even minimal visa requirements significantly reduce immigration. Further restrictions can reduce total immigration but at the cost of increasing unauthorized immigration, which increased enforcement may not be able to offset, according to the authors.
Article #18-00373: "A data-driven computational model on the effects of immigration policies," by Miranda Simon, Cassilde Schwartz, David Hudson, Shane D. Johnson.
MEDIA CONTACT: Miranda Simon, University College London, UNITED KINGDOM; tel: +1-650-733-3826; e-mail: <m.simon@ucl.ac.uk>
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Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences