image: Stormy seas crash into a pier along the northeast US coast. view more
Credit: PNAS
Researchers estimate the future flood risk to New York City from tropical cyclones. Future flood risk due to tropical cyclones depends upon both future sea-level rise and changes to storm surges. Andra Garner and colleagues estimated coastal flood risk in New York City through the year 2300 using a combination of sea-level rise projections, simulated tropical cyclones, and storm-surge models. The models identified projected sea-level rise at New York City as the major driver of increasing flood risk. Although storm intensity was projected to increase with time, simulated storm tracks at the latitude of New York City also shifted farther offshore with time, moderating the effect of storm intensity on surge. Mean overall flood heights were projected to be 0.7-1.4 m greater than the 1970-2005 average by the end of the current century, and 2.4-13 m greater by the end of the 23rd century. The return period for a 2.25-m flood, which was approximately 500 years prior to the year 1800, was estimated to be approximately 25 years at present, and was projected to further decrease to approximately 5 years within the next three decades. The study examines the impact of storm surge and sea-level rise on future flood risk for New York City, according to the authors.
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Article #17-03568: "Impact of climate change on New York City's coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE," by Andra J. Garner et al.
MEDIA CONTACT: Andra J. Garner, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; tel: 717-658-9303; e-mail: <ajgarner@marine.rutgers.edu>
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences