News Release

Climate change, coffee, and pollinator distribution in Latin America

Peer-Reviewed Publication

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Researchers report projected distribution patterns of coffee and coffee pollinators under future warming scenarios in Latin America. Climate change is predicted to cause geographic range shifts for major crops, such as coffee, and associated pollinators, potentially endangering food security in some regions. Although current projections indicate large losses in areas suitable for coffee production, the coupled effects of climate change on pollinators and crops remain unclear. Pablo Imbach and colleagues used ecological modeling to estimate future distribution changes in arabica coffee and 39 species of coffee-pollinating bees in Latin America, the world's largest coffee-producing region. Under medium and high warming scenarios, the results suggest a 73-88% reduction in areas suitable for growing coffee by 2050. The models also suggest that bee diversity might decline by 8-18% in future areas suitable for growing coffee. However, 10 or more bee species are predicted to be present in 46-59% of the future areas suitable for growing coffee, according to the models. Furthermore, an increase in both coffee suitability and bee diversity, which mostly occurred in Central America, was projected for 10-22% of future areas suitable for coffee, whereas a decrease in both factors occurred in 34-51% of the areas. According to the authors, the findings highlight the need for strategies that account for the coupled effects of climate change on coffee-growing areas and bee pollination.

###

Article #16-17940: "Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change," by Pablo Imbach et al.

MEDIA CONTACT: Pablo Imbach, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Hanoi, VIETNAM; tel: +842437570999, +841292813253; e-mail: <p.imbach@cgiar.org>


Disclaimer: AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert system.