The earthquake occurred on the East Anatolian Fault Zone, which represents a major plate boundary between the Arabian and Anatolian tectonic plates.
According to University of Ulster's Professor of Geophysics, John McCloskey, stress modelling results published by scientists from the School of Biological and Environmental Sciences last year identified the city of Bingol as being subject to a particularly high earthquake hazard.
"We calculated the stresses on the East Anatolian Fault Zone due to tectonic loading and due to historical earthquakes in Turkey, and identified two highly stressed areas on the fault, we pointed out that these areas were the most likely locations for future large events in this seismically active region."
"Thursday's earthquake occurred on one of these areas. "It is likely that the earthquake ruptured a segment of the East Anatolian Fault Zone which extends from just north of Bingol for about 25 km to the south-west. This event corresponds remarkably well with the location and mechanism identified in our 2002 paper."
The team, from the university's Geophysics Research Group has carried out a further series of detailed calculations and have concluded that there is a significantly increased seismic risk in the area as a result of the Bingol earthquake.
"Our preliminary results indicate significant increased hazard on the East Anatolian Fault Zone to the south west of the rupture, towards the city of Elazig and to the north east of Bingol. These results, combined with the faults known to exist in the area, indicate that large aftershocks may occur - with events of magnitude six on the Richter scale possible.
"Events of this size occurring in the region of an already damaged city could be very serious and could be expected to result in a further significant loss of life." said Professor McCloskey.
Journal
Earth and Planetary Science Letters