This regional rate of growth in the Northeast was well below the nation's 13.2 percent overall population growth rate and was the lowest among the major geographic regions, including the Midwest, the South and the West. A relatively low rate of natural increase in the population (births exceeding deaths) was one factor responsible for the below average growth rate, but the main culprit was the high level of net out-migration from the region and six of the nine states. During the 1990s, somewhere between 2.7 and 3.2 million more people left the Northeast region than came from other regions. The details of the study are available in the full report, Moving Out and Moving In: Out-migration and Foreign Immigration in the Northeast Region and New England During the 1990s, which was funded by the Teresa and H. John Heinz III Foundation.
Key findings of the study:
- New England had the slowest regional population growth of any region in the country during the 1990s, a 5.5 percent growth rate compared to the national average growth rate of 13.2 percent. This was the first time in the twentieth century that New England ranked dead last among the nine geographic divisions on this measure. Additionally, six of the nine Northeast states ranked among the bottom ten states on population growth rates during the 1990s;
- The weak population growth in the Northeast was influenced by a below average natural increase and by high levels of out-migration from the region during the decade. At least 2.7 million and perhaps as many as 3.2 million more people left the region than came here from other states;
- Substantial out-migration occurred in each of the large Northeast states (New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania) and in each of the southern New England states. Only Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont experienced positive in-migration during the decade. Net out-migration from New York alone was over 1.7 million. The total number of out-migrants from the region was equal to one-half of the population of Massachusetts. This out-migration reduced the supply of young and well-educated workers in the region and contributed to labor shortages at the end of the economic boom;
- The level of new foreign immigration reached a new historical high in the Northeast region during the decade of the 1990s, with nearly 3.1 million new foreign immigrants arriving in the region and residing at the time of the 2000 Census. This new immigration accounted for more than 100 percent of the population growth in the Northeast region during the 1990s, the highest of the four major regions. In the absence of new foreign immigration, the region's population actually would have declined by 307,000;
- New foreign immigration accounted for all of the population growth in four Northeast states (New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts) and New Jersey's population would have remained unchanged in the absence of new foreign immigration;
- A high fraction of these new foreign immigrants in our region are estimated to be undocumented, accounting for somewhere between 1.3 to 1.4 million out of the 9 million illegal immigrants across the nation. State and federal policy toward the undocumented has not been uniformly developed or implemented, which represents a major policy void.
"The slow growth of the Northeast region's population during the 1990s and its changing demographic composition have a number of important political and economic consequences for our region," said Andrew Sum, director of the Center for Labor Market Studies. "The Northeast will lose political clout on a variety of federal issues without a strong population base to support representation, reducing the number of delegates to the House of Representatives by five seats – one in Connecticut, two in New York and two in Pennsylvania – as well as in the Electoral College. Additionally, high levels of out-migration among the young and well educated combined with the slow growth and aging of the region's working-age population will place severe labor supply constraints on the region as the economic recovery takes hold. The large underestimated influx of immigrants, many of whom have limited formal schooling and English-speaking skills, will pose a number of assimilation challenges to our region's schools, employers, and communities. Because of this much-changed demographic, the Northeast faces a number of challenges now. Our leaders need to address these issues to prepare for the future."
"In the absence of these high levels of new foreign immigration, the Northeast would have experienced negative population growth for the first time in its history," said Nathan Pond, co-author of the study.
The high levels of domestic out-migration from the Northeast should be viewed as a major policy concern by the region's economic policymakers, Sum said, given the demographic composition of these out-migrants – many were young and well-educated – and the large numbers involved.
"The Northeast region's young adults expanded upon Horace Greeley's nineteenth century advice – 'Go West, young man' – and went both South and West over the decade in large numbers," he said. Future research reports will focus on the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and national origins of the immigrant population, their language proficiencies, and their labor force and employment behaviors and problems.
To receive a full copy of the report, please visit our web site (http://www.nupr.neu.edu/07-02/movingout.html) or call 617-373-5455.
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