(Santa Barbara, Calif.) How will the ability to anticipate fresh water supplies help to prepare for climate change?
This is just one key ‘ecological forecasting’ question that scientists are asking. While both weather and economic forecasts have become common and essential tools, so far scientists have yet to develop a wide practice of ecological forecasting.
Funded by the National Science Foundation, specialists from many institutions are meeting this week, through Oct. 18, at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS), at the University of California, Santa Barbara to address this need.
Increasing computing capacity together with broad-scale studies of ecosystem effects will soon make it possible to predict, validate and test many aspects of environmental change, according to the meeting chair, James S. Clark from Duke University’s Department of Biology.
According to Clark, the need for such forecasting is great. “Rapid change in climate, depletion of the natural resources that support regional economies, and deterioration of air, waters and soils pose unprecedented threat to human civilization,” he said.
Economists, climatologists, demographers and managers will make presentations at the meeting. Scientists in ecology and related disciplines will also present case studies to assess the readiness of ecological science to make forecasts.
Clark pointed out that government agencies and private corporations already produce short-term forecasts of commodities, pest outbreaks, fish stocks, and market trends. Similarly, we depend on weather forecasting. “With all its limitations, weather forecasting is institutionalized globally due to its invaluable contribution to society at large,” said Clark.
“The ability to forecast climate several crop seasons ahead is recognized as a major step toward future management of global food reserves,” he said. “Seismological activity is monitored by global networks that are the basis for risk assessment and prediction. Policy consideration of projected sea level rise in coastal zone planning illustrates how we already rely on environmental forecasts, however limited, as best guide to decade scale impacts.”
Clark is quick to point out that while we may never have precise ecological forecasts, it will still be very useful to anticipate the range of possibilities. He said the forecasts could predict “levels of certainty.”
Scenarios will depend on “key drivers,” he said. “Examples of drivers include climate, land use, human population, technologies and economic activity.” He is looking to time ranges of 10 to 50 years. Talks this week focus on land use, food supply, fertilizers, water and conservation. ###