The sharp decline in burglary rates since 1980 is linked to a corresponding increase in drug trafficking and various kinds of fraud, according to two researchers.
"According to the age-adjusted Uniform Crime Reports (UCR), burglary rates decreased by a third between 1980 and 1998," says Dr. Darrell Steffensmeier, professor of sociology at Penn State. "The other major crime index, the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), puts the rate decrease at about 40 percent."
"What appears to have happened is a substitution effect where the decline in an `index' or serious crime like burglary is made at the expense of an increase in nonindex crimes such as drug violations, fraud offenses and theft from motor vehicles," Steffensmeier notes. "Major changes in illegal markets and crime opportunities over the past two decades have made burglary less attractive as a criminal `profession' and eroded the subculture that produces burglars."
Steffensmeier and Miles D. Harer, research analyst with the Federal Bureau of Prisons, are co-authors of the paper, "Making Sense of Recent U.S. Crime Trends, 1980-96/8: Age-Composition Effects and Other Explanations," presented by Harer at the American Sociological Association meeting in Chicago on Aug. 9. The same paper will appear in the August issue of the Journal Of Research In Crime And Delinquency.
Would-be burglars have been turning to substitute crimes such as thefts from cars or vans (and thefts OF cars and vans) and assorted fraud offenses such as credit card fraud and writing bad checks. The key shift in the criminal market seems, however, to be toward drug trafficking. Dealing in drugs, with all its inherent risks, still requires less skill and physical agility than burglary, says Steffensmeier.
"Another important factor in the decline of burglary is `supply and demand' within the stolen property market," Steffensmeier says. "The abundance of popular consumer items such as televisions, VCRs and cameras have cut demand for stolen goods, causing street prices for many stolen household goods to also drop, perhaps as much as a fifth. The lower profitability of stealing popular consumer goods may have prompted some thieves to turn to crimes like robbery and drug dealing that offer a quicker return than burglary."
He notes that simultaneously, in neighborhoods marked by heavy drug dependency, profits from burglary have dwindled because addicts already flood the stolen goods market with jewelry, guns and consumer electronic goods.
"Lastly, major improvements in domestic and commercial security (e.g. better lighting, better safes, alarm systems) may have deterred would-be burglars, just as enforcement programs targeted at career offenders may have reduced the number of `professional' burglars who commit many burglaries and recruit younger people as `apprentices,' " Steffensmeier says.
"Aspiring criminals who once would have considered a `career' in burglary have in recent years been drawn into other forms of theft that make fewer physical demands and promise a return that is equally lucrative and more immediate," he adds.
UCR statistics, released since 1930, are based on police department counts of citizen reports of victimization and on the number of crimes or victimizations witnessed by the police themselves. Offenses listed in the UCR do not refer to all types of crime, but to seven "serious" offenses that make up the Crime Index: homicide, aggravated assault, forcible rape, robbery, burglary, larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft.
The NCVS, initiated in 1973, is a survey of scientifically selected sample of households throughout the nation. Persons over 12 years of age are questioned about their experience with index crimes, except homicide.
"NCVS statistics appear to underestimate current compared to prior crime levels whereas UCR statistics tend to inflate them," Steffensmeier says.
EDITORS: Dr. Steffensmeier is at 814-466-6476 or at d4s@psu.edu by email; Mr. Harer is at mharer@bop.gov by e-mail.