Will climate change occur at a a higher rate than the speed at which species can establish, grow and reproduce? Eight hundred of the world's leading environmental scientists will address this and other questions at a meeting sponsored by GCTE/LUCC in Barcelona, Spain on March 14-18, 1998.
The Science
- The concentration of "greenhouse gases" in the atmosphere has increased
significantly since the industrial revolution as a result of human activities,
especially fossil fuel burning and deforestation. This has the potential to
significantly alter the Earth's climate, expected to be warmer by one to 3.5°C
in 2100. This would represent a rate of warming much greater than any seen in
the last 10,000 years.
- In response to changes in climate, plant species may migrate to more suitable
habitats. While this seems not to have been a major limitation in the past,
human-induced climate change calls for migration rates up to 10 times faster
than historically observed for many species. One major goal of the scientists?
meeting in Barcelona is to predict the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems facing
this unprecedented rate of climate change.
- One of the most powerful tools at the disposal of researchers is the use of
sophisticated computer models that now incorporate information on how species
establish, grow and reproduce. Dr. A.M. Solomon (Environmental Protection
Agency, USA) and co-workers developed such a model to stimulate the succession
of tree species in forests. They found that tree species should be able to
migrate fast enough to keep up with climate change in the mountainous terrain of
the Pacific Northwest, but not in the gently rolling terrain of midwestern US.
This is due to the fact that in mountains the vertical distances between
suitable and deteriorating habitats are shorter than in the plains.
- Researchers face additional challenges due to the combined effects of climate
change and land-use change: two results of human activities that are the focus
of the GCTE and LUCC projects. Dr. G. Malanson (University of Iowa, USA) will
speak about the effects of the fragmentation of ecosystems, which results in
smaller, less connected habitats, making it harder for species to disperse
across landscapes as climate changes.
These ideas will be discussed on Day 3 (March 16) at 9:00 in the session 2 "Global Change and Ecosystem Structure" and in the poster session following immediately. At the lunch break, an ad hoc meeting will focus specifically on dispersal modeling in fragmented landscapes.
Contact: Press Officer GCTE/LUCC Conference: Anne Larigauderie
Université Paris-Sud, Ecologie des Populations et Communautes, Bat. 362,
F-91405 Orsay Cedex, France
Phone/Fax: +33 1 69 15 56 92/6
E-mail: anne.larigauderie@epc.u-psud.fr
Conference Secretatiat, Barcelona, Spain:
Tel: +34 3 233 2387 FAX: +34 3 233 2575