Current state and predicitions of 2023/24 El Niño (IMAGE)

Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research (OLAR)

Current state and predicitions of 2023/24 El Niño

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Current state and predicitions of 2023/24 El Niño (A) The integral of the warm water volume (unit of m3) over the equatorial Pacific (120°E-80°W 5°S-5°N) in D(-1)JF(0) preceding every El Niño event since 1982, and in 2023. (B-C) The tropical Pacific sea surface temperature in D(-1)JF(0) 2023 and 1982. Data is from ORAS5. (D) Predictions of the NINO3.4 index from Mar 2023 when different number and type of high-frequency perturbations are added in MAMJ(0) 2023. Shading in (D) denotes the 95% bootstrap confidence level.

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