Simulated mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet from 1990 until 3000 expressed as sea-level contribution (IMAGE)

Hokkaido University

Simulated mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet from 1990 until 3000 expressed as sea-level contribution

Caption

Simulated mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet from 1990 until 3000 expressed as sea-level contribution: Fourteen experiments for the unabated warming pathway (RCP8.5, SSP5-8.5), three experiments for the reduced emissions pathway (RCP2.6, SSP1-2.6), a historical run (‘hist’) for 1990–2015 and a control run for a constant 1995–2014 climate (‘ctrl_proj’) under which the ice sheet is essentially stable. The red and blue boxes to the right show the means for RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 and RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6, respectively; the whiskers show the full ranges. Phase 1 is the original ISMIP6 period until 2100. Phases 2-4 are valid for RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 and show an accelerated mass loss (phase 2), the main instability of the West Antarctic ice sheet (phase 3) and a final phase 4 where the mass loss levels out. Map-view plots below are ice surface elevation differences relative to 2015 (in metres; blue means thickening, red/brown means thinning) for the simulation forced by MIROC-ESM-CHEM/RCP8.5 (Christopher Chambers et al. Journal of Glaciology. December 22, 2021).

Credit

Christopher Chambers et al. Journal of Glaciology. December 22, 2021

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