Cover Article of Issue 33(11) of <i>Advances in Atmospheric Sciences</i> (IMAGE)
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Cover article: Compared to single deterministic forecasts, ensemble forecasts can better capture extreme events and, at the same time, provide information on the reliability or uncertainty of the forecasts. The ensemble mean forecast is often more accurate than individual forecasts. In this issue, Zhu and Xue (2016) demonstrate the skill of an ensemble forecasting system at 4-km grid spacing in predicting the historically rare "721" Giant Beijing Rainstorm in the Beijing area on 21 July 2012. Also shown on the cover is a photo of the mobile C-band dual-polarimetric radar of Nanjing University, which is capable of accurately measuring rainfall and microphysics. The curves show the accumulated rainfall predicted by some of the 4-km ensemble members at the station location where maximum accumulated rainfall was measured on that day.
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<I>Advances in Atmospheric Sciences</I>
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