Fig. 1: Four Archetypes Of Emission Pathways Leading To A 2 °c Warming Target With Peak Emissions In (IMAGE)
Caption
Projections are based on a threshold exceedance budget of 232 Gt C for 2015-2100 including an RCP8.5 non-CO2 forcing23. Blue lines depict annual net C emissions, red lines are cumulative C emissions. a, Late-Century CDR: late century BECCS deployment results in a substantial overshoot of cumulative emissions (half-life of fossil phase-out = 25 years). b, Rapid Decarbonization: a carbon law with 10 years half-life makes CDR obsolete since cumulative emissions stay well below the budget. c, No Overshoot: CDRs ramp up early and phase out towards the end of the century to avoid an overshoot in cumulative emissions, BECCS is limited to 1.2 Gt C per year (equalling the BECCS capacity of the Minimize CDR archetype), and the remainder is captured by DAC (half-life of fossil phase-out = 25 years). d, Minimize CDR: BECCS is spread evenly over the century thereby minimizing its capacity. No other CDRs are deployed (half-life of fossil phase-out = 25 years). The C-price for the Agriculture, Forest and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector for a and b increases exponentially from US$0 (in 2020) to US$200 (in 2100); for c and d it is constant at US$40 (year 2000) per t CO2.
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https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0045-1/figures/1
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