Los Angeles Wildfires (IMAGE)

ECMWF

Los Angeles Wildfires

Caption

ECMWF's new data-driven fire danger model, the Probability of Fire (PoF), is designed to go beyond using only weather parameters. On 7 January 2025, the 5-day-ahead forecast for Southern California from the PoF model, which incorporates multiple data sources (left), shows a better localisation of ongoing fires compared to the traditional, weather-based Fire Weather Index (FWI). The FWI, used as the headline metric in the Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS) and many other regional early warning systems, is shown on the right for the same date. Active fire observations from satellite instruments (MODIS sensor – triangles, VIIRS sensors – circles) for 7 January 2025 are overlaid on both maps. Source: ECMWF

Credit

Source: ECMWF First published in Nat Comms https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-58097-7

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